The Federal Reserve reported yesterday that revolving consumer credit in the US rose by a seasonally adjusted $10 billion in the month of July 2019. That was the largest single monthly increase since November 2017. Given how the latter month was related to “residual seasonality”, meaning Americans spending perhaps more than they wanted for the […]
On Wednesday afternoon (9/11/19) I sent this note to Technical Trader subscribers. I’ve redacted the specifics here, but wanted to share the thinking with you.
All of America’s bubbles will pop, and sooner rather than later.Financial bubbles manifest three dynamics: the one we’re most familiar with is human greed, the desire to exploit a windfall and catch a work-free ride to riches.The second dynamic ge…
The last time was bad, no getting around it. From the end of 2014 until the first months of 2016, the Chinese economy was in a perilous state. Dramatic weakness had emerged which had seemed impossible to reconcile with conventions about the country. Committed to growth over everything, and I mean everything, China was the […]
After feasting for years on the “extraordinary” policy of the Federal Open Market Committee (aka “Financial Repression),” the banks are now getting squeezed in a deflationary vice.
Right now, everything comes down to the labor market. Does the US economy hang on despite stubborn and evidently non-transitory overseas turmoil cross currents? Or do American consumers rightly confident of the economic situation re-assert themselves via their wallets and deliriously spend the economy back on track? You better believe Fed Chairman Jay Powell will […]
Not seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, that is, the actual numbers, give us a truer picture of the jobs market than the seasonally adjusted garbage that Wall Street spews.
For every action there is a reaction. Not only is that Sir Isaac Newton’s third law, it’s also a statement about human nature.
Monetary policy can be implemented through outright purchases or sales of securities, which permanently changes the size of the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio.
Give stimulus a chance, that’s the theme being set up for this week.