Even on the intraday charts. The ES futures rallied back to the 10 day trendline. They tagged it nicely and stopped dead. Now, at 5:20 AM NY time, they’re showing signs of rolling over again. This is after also hitting a 5 day cycle projection of 4485….
Janet Yellen has now confirmed that the Treasury will run out of money in October, as we already knew from our tracking of the data. Congress will be forced to raise the debt ceiling. Treasury supply will mushroom at the same time as the Fed begins to cut its market support operations. The RRP slush fund will affect the timing of the coming disaster. But we know its coming and we have a good idea of when.
Meanwhile the BLS has fomented a completely false picture of inflation. I explain that in this report. It’s blatant.
OK. I cheated. That’s counting the weekend. Was there an up day yesterday. Sure can’t tell that from the hourly chart. And as of 5:45 AM in New York, the price of the ES, S&P futures, has reached a critical juncture.
That juncture is the pric…
The cycle picture is hazy. The table at left (subscriber version) is my best guess. A short term low is due, but at a lower projection. The would-be 13-17 week cycle up phase has gone nowhere, despite a new projection that points higher. If it doesn’t get out of this range soon, it would suggest the possibility of a wicked down phase ahead. If the price holds above the May-August downtrend line as shown on this chart (subscriber version), that would be constructive
Here’s the 2 hour bar look.
Strange. We’re not used to seeing persistent downtrends that last for 8 days. Must have something to do with Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur.
And lest we forget, it’s that time of the month. Fed MBS settlement…
Including 5 holdovers from last week, there are now 13 open picks on the list, all longs.
From the 2 hour bar perspective, Friday’s breakdown completed a helluva top pattern. Now, at 5:30 AM NY time, they’re fighting their way back. Here’s the 2 hour bar look.
They’re attacking resistance at 4489. If they get through that, the n…
From a time perspective, the 10-12 month cycle ideally should be in a top phase. But it surpassed its last cycle projection of 4440 so it is probably in trending mode. Both the 6 month cycle and the 13 week cycles appear to be trending.
I started to wonder how the banking indicators were looking lately. I’ve looked at the charts this morning. In updating this for you, I’ve again attempted to minimize the verbiage here. The charts are bad enough.
Focus on what matters, not the false news headlines. Here’s what matters.