The bear market in Treasuries that started in August devolved into an outright crash last week. Meanwhile, evidence shows that cash in Primary Dealer accounts has exploded to the highest level in history, with the biggest weekly increase in history. There’s also circumstantial evidence that that cash came directly from US Treasury, away from the publicly visible means that we already saw last week.
Primary Dealers were holding record levels of inventory with record levels of leverage since late Q3 2019. It was all hunky dory as long as bond prices were rising, or at least stable. The mirror of that is yields falling, or stable.
Ever since then I regularly warned about this in my Liquidity Trader reports. I said that it’s a two way street, and that when the inevitable decline in Treasury prices started, it would devolve into big margin calls to the dealers.
The US Treasury announced today that it would inject another $30 billion into the markets, in an attempt to forestall systemic meltdown.
S&P futures are mounting another comeback attempt this morning in Europe, aided by $55 billion in quasi QE from the US Treasury yesterday, with another $41 billion coming tomorrow and $25 billion next Wednesday. Just one problem –of many– the money ain’t going where the Treasury wants it to.
And that is a catastrophic problem for our financial stability.
The Treasury will inject still more cash into the market, on top of the $96 billion it already staged last week. It announced on Tuesday (Feb 23) that it will do a third round of T-bill paydowns, this for $25 billion, settling on March 3. This is on top of the $55 billion that is…
The good news is that the 13 week cycle appears to have entered an up phase. And it did so before materially breaking the previous low. The bad news is that 9-12 month cycle indicators are showing no signs of strength early in this up phase. Here’s what it means, and a suggested trade.
In WW2, the Allies- US and Brits, bombed the crap out of the neighborhood where I currently live. Here’s a little background about my neighborhood. And speaking of bombing, take a look at this market in the wee hours this morning.
And shoulders over 3 weeks. Completed, and busted. The thing measures to about 3805. The 5 day cycle projection points to 3855-70. But there’s a fly in the bear’s ointment.
We may be skating on very thin ice here, but the weight of the evidence still supports a weak bull case for the near to intermediate term. So I’m adding buy picks on the chart pick list and adjusting trailing stops to account for the risk.