Some things are just irresolvable. Religious conflict and abortion are issues that come quickly to mind, along with whether tax cuts spur growth sufficient to hold fiscal deficits in check. The bond market won’t be weighing in on religion or women’s …
Powell is a dove. That was likely settled for good Wednesday. There was justification for market expectations of a more hawkish FOMC and Chair. Inflation has been sticky, and the current trajectory unclear. It’s a leap of faith today to believe inflation is moving to the Fed’s 2% target.
Despite close calls Saturday night and again on Thursday night, we at least made it through the week avoiding “the start of WWIII.” I’m afraid the same cannot be said for the beginning of WWDD (World-Wide De-Risking/Deleveraging).Key speculative levera…
The Fed may focus on reduced growth in household and corporate borrowings, while disregarding the paramount issue: ongoing booms in repo, money fund, broker/dealer, and ROW holdings. Resulting extraordinary liquidity excesses are fueling late-cycle speculative melt-up dynamics in equities, corporate Credit, crypto and the like.
“Terminal Phase Excess” dynamics create great analytical and policy dilemmas. It’s likely that the Fed will be viewed as having waited too long to begin easing policy.
Powell and FOMC’s thinking has gone through quite an evolution. Over recent months, the notion of “immaculate disinflation” has supplanted traditional analysis.
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Another year of a transformative bond bear market?
It seems like the market this week was infected with a touch of reality.
It’s incredible what a mess central bankers have made of things.
