While ebullient markets have briskly moved on, I’m not done with Archegos.
Debt structures degenerate over time, as the boom is perpetuated by expanding quantities of debt of deteriorating quality. Archegos is emblematic of an out of control mania and a complete breakdown of responsible lending and regulatory oversight.
The parallels to 1929 turn only more compelling and ominous.
I’m not fond of self-promotion, but I would like to support Jonathan Doyle’s “The Supply Side” podcast. Jonathan interviewed me this week. Click here.
I found the Powell press conference problematic. After less than glorious market responses to his recent congressional testimony and WSJ Q&A session, I would have thought some tinkering of his messaging was in order. But Powell doubled down.
Facts support the view that a major bear market is unfolding in long-term Treasuries and fixed income securities.
Zero chance of the Fed moving to tighten financial conditions in the event of inflation gaining a serious foothold. By that point, bond markets would surely already be in a state of disarray. The FOMC wouldn’t dare tighten.
The U.S., after all, is running unprecedented peacetime deficits, with a new $1.9 TN stimulus package scooting through Congress. This legislation will be followed by what is sure to be a major infrastructure program. There is literally colossal deficits and Treasury issuance as far as the eye can see.
Existing market infrastructure will buckle under tens of millions of synchronized sell orders.
Wall Street, of course, is bewitched by the Fed’s QE. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is these days uninterested in assessing either QE’s effects or risks. Observation and evaluation of QE is left to us. Every week, Doug Noland, summarizes the effects and dangers brilliantly.