The market started a baby downtrend channel last week. The top of the channel will open on Monday at 3572. Here in the premarket around 5:30 AM in New York, that trendline was being challenged as, once again, Asia and Europe have rallied. This report shows you what to look for this week as it affects the longer term outlook.
Cyclically, there’s no reason to get bearish here. Cycles of up to 6 months duration remain in gear to the upside. A 4 week cycle high is due now, but it won’t matter if the 6-8 week cycle is dominant. Here are the price targets and theoretical timing of these expected moves.
Short term cycles turned up on schedule, triggering the overdue upturn in the 6 month cycle. The 13 week cycle up phase got its expected second wind. All cycles from 4 weeks to 6 months are now in gear to the upside. The 4 week cycle currently projects to 3560. The 13 week cycle points higher–a lot higher.
The bears took control last week, crushing all the uptrend lines I had drawn on this chart. Now we have a well-defined downtrend. The market has also edged below several old long term and intermediate trendline extensions. If these aren’t immediately recrossed, the downside becomes wide open.
We have a selloff in the pre market, but the TA says, don’t trust it yet. Or maybe, “Trust, but verify,” for those of you of a certain age, like me.
Meanwhile, as for chart picks, I didn’t see much that I liked in this week’s screens. I didn’t add any longs. We’re already loaded to the gills there. I added two shorts, and one is conditional on a limit price entry.
4 picks were stopped out last week. With the the 2 new picks, that will leave 16 open picks, including 12 longs, and 4 shorts.
List performance improved last week, with the average gain increasing from +2.9% to +3.8%. The average holding period rose from 12 calendar days to 13, which is still less than the usual 16-20 days because I added a slew of new picks the previous week.
Chart picks are theoretical, assume 100% cash stock trades, no margin, no options, no futures.
I once read somewhere that past performance doesn’t indicate future results, or something. Is that true? Hopefully it is, considering some of my past performances.
Short term cycles have entered down phases. But this looks like a consolidation, not a top.Here’s why and what to do about it. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the…
Scheduled liquidity data has told us for a couple of months that October would be bullish. That played out like a charm in terms of the technical analysis last week. We also know that liquidity only gets more bullish this week. The technical picture confirms that outlook. We must give the bullish factors the benefit of the doubt.
My stock pick screens confirm that. I’m adding 7 picks from those screens this week, 5 long and 2 short. That will leave 13 open picks, including 11 longs, and the 2 new shorts.
Mixed cyclicality has led to a rangebound market. There’s no sign that that will change this week. But look out if it does!
An up day on Monday would confirm that the short term downtrend is broken. This report gives you the key support and resistance levels, and what to expect if they’re broken. I’ve added 8 chart picks, 5 longs and 3 shorts, to take advantage of a move either way. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity…
An important low is due right now but bears have a chance to break the market. This report shows you the setup and gives you picks to play both ways. Current long/short swing trade chart picks are up 6.9% (100% cash basis) on average, with an average holding period of 3 weeks. This week I…