Christopher Whalen

Chairman Powell Pirouettes on Bank Dividends

New York | Last week the Federal Reserve Board made public the annual stress test results, a financial media circus that celebrates the bank stress test popularized by former New York Fed President Timothy Geithner. The Fed essentially confirms what we already know, namely that banks have largely suspended share repurchases and at some institutions…

Sizing the Commercial Real Estate Bust

“You pass the Helmsley Palace, the shell of old New York transparently veiling the hideous erection of a real estate baron…” Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of…

Great Lockdown Brings Global Deflation

New York | This week in The Institutional Risk Analyst, we ponder the state of the bezzle, that fluffy, frothy portion atop the political economy that feeds the purveyors of fraud and dubious financial schemes. Six months ago, the bezzle seemed set to expand infinitely thanks to the largess of the Federal Open Market Committee.…

Bank Earnings Armageddon

New York | This week, The Institutional Risk Analyst releases our Q1 2020 bank earnings report, which is for sale in our online store. In our latest credit comment, we feature net loss rate and earnings estimates for JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) through Q2 2020. Follow…

Calabria’s FHFA Fans the Fires of Contagion

“Because uncertainty about the future is fundamental, financial mistakes will continue to be made. They will be made by entrepreneurs, bankers, borrowers, central bankers, government regulators, politicians, and, notably, by the interaction of all of the above.” Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and…

Panic, Liquidity and Ratings

New York | The great sucking sound heard last week was the release of accumulated froth in the global equity markets. The FOMC’s decision to act with a 50bp cut in the target for Fed funds had little effect on real markets for real counterparties. Meanwhile, the panic in the media is having outsized consequences…

The IRA Bank Book Q1 2020

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of theinstitutionalriskanalyst. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of the next big moves in stocks and…