The number of traders who beat the indices soundly over both Bull and Bear markets are very few in number.
Surely the Fed gods will affirm the cult’s most revered articles of faith. But false gods eventually fail, even the Fed.
Here’s “politics” in America now: come with mega-millions or don’t even bother to show up.
This gives an extreme advantage to those few who move first, long before they must. The financial advantage for first movers is equally extreme.
Try to find a developing-world kleptocracy in which the top few collect more than 97% of the income from capital. There aren’t any that top the USA, the world’s most extreme kleptocracy. We’re Number 1.
So one index or asset or another hits a new high, wow, more proof everything is so robust and healthy, we never had it so good–right up to the seizure and collapse.
What seemed so permanent for 13 long years will be revealed as shifting sand and what seemed so real for 13 long years will be revealed as illusion. Magical thinking isn’t optimism, it is folly.
In other words, our economy and society have been optimized for failure.
The interesting feature of the ‘last chance to get out’ is nobody sees it until after the crash has done its damage.
What would be truly optimistic would be to surrender our dependence on asset bubbles and malinvested debt to prop up an unstable delusion of effortless “wealth.”