Short term interest rates have fallen sharply in recent weeks. Wall Street says that falling interest rates mean the economy is weak. Therefore the Fed will cut rates in July, and perhaps several more times this year. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through…
Lee's Latest Free Thinking
Lee's Free Thinking
Jobs Report Nonfarm Payrolls- What They Did NOT Tell You
by Lee Adler •
In today’s BLS jobs report, Nonfarm Payrolls came out at a gain of just 75,000. That’s on a seasonally adjusted month to month basis. The surveys of economists had predicted a gain of 180,000. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So…
Lee's Free Thinking
Federal Excise Tax Data Shows No Obstruction, No Collusion
by Lee Adler •
Federal Excise Tax data showed that the US economy was unobstructed in May. The data was not in collusion with the mainstream Wall Street narrative. That narrative, which virtually everybody believes, is that the US economy is weakening and the Fed will cut interest rates. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that…
Liquidity Trader
Liquidity Trader - US Government Revenues
Federal Budget Data is a Bad News-Bad News Story
by Lee Adler •
Tax collections were strong in May except for a dip that coincided with the Nonfarm Payrolls survey. Here’s why that’s unequivocally bad news for the markets and why you need to get ready for a delayed shock reaction. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and…
Liquidity Trader - Macro Liquidity- Fed and Banking, Liquidity Trader Complete
Short Term Positive Liquidity, Long Term Scary
by Lee Adler •
The Composite Liquidity Indicator remains near a record extreme, and that’s scary. Here’s what you need to know. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of the next big moves in stocks and bonds,…
Must Read
Must Read
Interest Rate, Oil Volatility Spikes- Gold Benefits
by Anthony B Sanders •
We are living in a world of Crisisgeist! Iran allegedly firing missiles at tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, China insisting on lopsided trade tariffs, Brexit uncertainty, the US-Mexican border, Federal Reserve follicy uncertainty, Congressional spending lunacy. etc. Look at the MOVE, TYVIX and oil volatility indices. It is like Iran fired missiles at financial … Continue reading Crisisgeist! Interest Rate, Oil Volatility Spikes (Gold Is Reaping The Benefits) →
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Retail Sales (US): Green Shoots Under the 3% Line?
by Jeffrey P. Snider •
Retail Sales rose just 3.46% year-over-year (unadjusted) in May 2019. The estimate for April was revised substantially higher, now suggesting growth of 5.6%. Altogether, however, consumer spending continues to be unusually weak. How unusual? The 6-month average, a better gauge of growth conditions given the noisy nature of the series, is now below 3% for […]
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Curveball
by Sven Henrich •
If you went panic chasing into stocks following Jay Powell’s ‘ready to act’ speech on June 4 on the expectation for imminent rate cuts you just got thrown a curveball: Economic data […]
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The Real U.S. Migration Crisis is Not at the Border, but at Home
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
I recently wrote about the new data from the U.S. Customs and Border Patrol on crime amongst the illegal and legal immigrants in the U.S. here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2019/06/3619-what-customs-and-border-protection.html. The key conclu…
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Seven Specific Shorts
by Tim Knight •
FEEDThe post Seven Specific Shorts appeared first on Slope of Hope.
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Misplaced Pride: Most of the "Middle Class" Is Actually Working Class
by Charles Hugh Smith •
If we look at these charts, it looks like only the top 10%, or perhaps the top 20% at best, might qualify as “middle class” by the metrics described below.The conventional definition of working class is based on income and education:the worki…
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Grants Interest Rate Observer Talks to Jeff Snider
by Jeffrey P. Snider •
Once you realize negative yielding sovereign bonds aren’t investments, they are balance sheet tools for global banks, things start to fall into place. I had the honor to chat with the fellas at Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. In a world where stocks are the media kings it’s good every once in a while to talk […]
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The Long Boom that Busted
by Tim Knight •
FEEDExactly twenty-two years ago, I walked into the Fry’s Electronics store in Palo Alto to get a few items, and I was faced with this cheerful cover on the magazine rack: The cover boldly declared that we were in the midst of a “long boom&…
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The Last Time This Happened Everybody Was Wrong – Charts
by Sven Henrich •
There are many market charts to track and most headlines are focused on the $DJIA, $SPX and $NDX, but there are other key index charts of interest, especially at this time. I […]
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Russian International Reserves and Government Debt
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
Earlier today, an esteemed colleague of mine tweeted out the following concerning Russian foreign reserves:Which is hardly surprising, as Russia has been beefing up its reserves for some time now, following the crisis of 2014-2016 and in response to th…
