Lee's Latest Free Thinking

Falling Interest Rates Illusion Leads Wall Street to Dangerous Wrong Conclusion

Short term interest rates have fallen sharply in recent weeks. Wall Street says that falling interest rates mean the economy is weak. Therefore the Fed will cut rates in July, and perhaps several more times this year.  Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through…

Liquidity Trader

Short Term Positive Liquidity, Long Term Scary

The Composite Liquidity Indicator remains near a record extreme, and that’s scary. Here’s what you need to know. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of the next big moves in stocks and bonds,…

Must Read

Interest Rate, Oil Volatility Spikes- Gold Benefits

We are living in a world of Crisisgeist! Iran allegedly firing missiles at tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, China insisting on lopsided trade tariffs, Brexit uncertainty, the US-Mexican border,  Federal Reserve follicy uncertainty, Congressional spending lunacy. etc. Look at the MOVE, TYVIX and oil volatility indices. It is like Iran fired missiles at financial … Continue reading Crisisgeist! Interest Rate, Oil Volatility Spikes (Gold Is Reaping The Benefits)

Retail Sales (US): Green Shoots Under the 3% Line?

Retail Sales rose just 3.46% year-over-year (unadjusted) in May 2019. The estimate for April was revised substantially higher, now suggesting growth of 5.6%. Altogether, however, consumer spending continues to be unusually weak. How unusual? The 6-month average, a better gauge of growth conditions given the noisy nature of the series, is now below 3% for […]

Curveball

If you went panic chasing into stocks following Jay Powell’s ‘ready to act’ speech on June 4 on the expectation for imminent rate cuts you just got thrown a curveball: Economic data […]

The Long Boom that Busted

FEEDExactly twenty-two years ago, I walked into the Fry’s Electronics store in Palo Alto to get a few items, and I was faced with this cheerful cover on the magazine rack: The cover boldly declared that we were in the midst of a “long boom&…