New York | Last week in The Institutional Risk Analyst, we gave you a taste of today’s interview with author and consultant Jim Rickards to talk about his latest book, “Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos.” As usual, Jim has a commanding view of the ebb and flow of the global political economy. His first chapter in which he describes the fateful role of former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in choosing the current monetary policy mix sets the stage for an important
Again, who’s following who? As US Treasury yields drop and eurodollar futures prices rise, signaling expectations for lower money rates in the near future, Federal Reserve officials are catching up to them. It was these markets which first took further rate hikes off the table before there ever was a Fed “pause.” Now that the […]
Please don’t anybody act surprised by today’s rally. We were oversold, we hit key technical pivots and a bounce was due, but the trigger was well advertised in advance. 13 Fed speakers […]
Federal tax collections data, including withholding taxes and excise taxes, suggest jobs and other economic data for May will surprise the market. Click here to…
The fact that the mainstream isn’t taking this all very seriously isn’t anything new. But how serious are things really? That’s pretty much the only question anyone should be asking. What are the curves telling us about what’s now just over the horizon? I hesitate to use 2008 comparisons too often because many people immediately […]
When the eurodollar futures curve first inverted a year ago in the wake of May 29, 2018, it was the market beginning to hedge against serious and rising risks of something that would force the Federal Reserve to turn around. When that might happen, or how many cuts would eventually follow, those were questions the […]
Short term and intermediate indicators have turned bullish for the metal and the stocks. Click here to download report. Try Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader, including…
Stock market technical signals have turned bearish enough for a SPY put trade recommendation. But there are conditions. Technical Trader subscribers, click here to download…
The market is ready to crash, Lee Adler told Lindsay Williams in this podcast recorded Friday, May 31.
New York | A year ago in The Institutional Risk Analyst, we predicted that net interest income for the US banking industry would flatten out and decline around Q1 2019. Sure enough, that is precisely what has happened. We wrote in The IRA Bank Book for Q1 2019:”The cost of funds for US banks continues to grow at four times the rate of interest income, suggesting that the net-interest margin earned by banks may start to decline in 2019. Rising funding costs are being felt the most by smaller