The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closed below 2% for the first time since Donald Trump was elected President. Having flirted with that level several times over the past week, today the most-watched interest rate on the planet finally breached this one startling round number. And it comes during a week which by every conventional […]
Unable to tackle effective monetary requirements, bank regulators around the world turned to “macroprudential” approaches in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. It was mostly public relations, a way to assure the public that 2008 would never be repeated. A whole set of new rules was instituted which everyone was told would reign in […]
It was supposed to be the Chinese government who was going to rescue the global economy. Once the rationalizations ended and officials around the world realized there was serious economic weakness building at the end of 2018 instead of a globally synchronized inflationary recovery, the green shoots of 2019 were going to be in one […]
If we consider the long term, it’s clear America’s economy and society have been declining for the average household for 50 years.What if the “prosperity” of the past 50 years is mostly a statistical mirage for the bottom 80% of households? What i…
This green shoot didn’t wilt so much as it exploded into a fireball.
New York | In this issue of The Institutional Risk Analyst, we ponder how the actions or inaction of policy makers can create systemic events. In the next issue, we’ll dive into Q2 2019 earnings for banks and non-banks. Of interest, the Q2 edition of The IRA Bank Book is now on sale at our online store. News last week that the leadership of Deutsche Bank AG (DB) is planning to cut one out of six jobs at the bank, this in an effort to regain financial health, drew some positive attention from
Gold has topped out, for now. The mining stocks and gold look poised for corrections, but the long term outlook remains bullish. Among our trading…
On Mount Everest the Death Zone is the altitude above 8,000 meters above which climbers cannot survive for an extended period of time without oxygen (speak: artificial help). In the Death Zone […]
The 10-12 month cycle “second wind” rally continues. It could run until the originally projected time window of late July through late September. The cycle…
Is the market’s 100% probability for a July rate cut justifiable in the event of market exuberance in response to improved prospects for a successful completion of trade negotiations?
