Thank the Fed’s Not QE program, and light Treasury supply! Supply and demand conditions for stocks and bonds have been as good as it gets. That’s about to change.
It’s a palpable impatience. Having learned absolutely nothing from the most recent German example, there’s this pervasive belief that if the economy hasn’t fallen apart by now it must be going the other way. The right way. Those are the only two options for mainstream analysis (which means it isn’t analysis). You can see it […]
Everyone expecting a quick resolution to the epidemic and a rapid return to pre-epidemic conditions would be well-served by looking beyond first-order effects.While the media naturally focuses on the immediate effects of the coronavirus epidemic, …
Monetary policy can be implemented through outright purchases or sales of securities, which permanently changes the size of the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio.
According to analysts and economists who watch these things, Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index was expected to continue its rise. Having purportedly bottomed out back in September, like other sentiment indicators this one had been on the rebound, too, if, though, much less than those others (especially the “stimulus” loving ZEW). While maybe not suggesting […]
The potential for a consequential disruption in China’s supply chains appears to be vastly under-appreciated.Despite the current drop in stocks (less than 1.5% as this is written), there’s a tremendous reservoir of complacency about the econo…
It’s that time of the year again when another exuberant rally gets too cocky, produces massive overbought readings as everybody is trampling long into stocks, is ignoring all the warning signs and […]
The 6 month cycle has probably topped out but long term charts tell us to maintain perspective. Here’s what comes next.
Monetary policy can be implemented through outright purchases or sales of securities, which permanently changes the size of the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio.
Dealers cut back their fixed income inventories ever so slightly over the past month. They also increased their hedges, but again, slightly. They are still near historical record net long positions, and still carry historic levels of leverage.
With a bulge in Treasury supply on the way, is this where the bond market might trigger them throwing up their hands and saying WTF, despite the Fed?