A small one, but enough.
Short term cycles turned up on schedule, triggering the overdue upturn in the 6 month cycle. The 13 week cycle up phase got its expected second wind. All cycles from 4 weeks to 6 months are now in gear to the upside. The 4 week cycle currently projects to 3560. The 13 week cycle points higher–a lot higher.
BRIC Manufacturing indicator is now outperforming Global Manufacturing PMI in 8th consecutive quarters, and BRIC Services indicators is running above Global Services PMI for the first time after posting poorer performance in 3Q 2020.
U.S. is now in a full-blown third wave of the pandemic both in terms of daily case counts and deaths, and the EU27 is in a full-blown second wave:Summary statistics:Histograms for both:
The prospect of a divided Washington would seem to take some pressure off the vulnerable Treasury market – and, through lower Treasury yields, corporate Credit more generally. And I appreciate that divided government has in the past worked to the advantage of the bull market status quo. But are we to believe in today’s crisis backdrop an irreconcilably split and hostile Washington will somehow function to the benefit of the markets and our nation?
The primary reason for that first rate hike in a decade in December 2015 was ferbus figuring that full employment had probably been reached, certainly close to where the unemployment rate had fallen at that time. The Fed’s main econometric model calculated this key economic level at between 4.8% and 5.0% unemployment; the actual rate […]
So enjoy the GBOAT (greatest bubble of all time) but watch the clock.
The number of deaths from the coronavirus has started to grow again in Europe as a second wave of infections is raging on the continent. In the U.S., deaths have begun to inch up again for a third time since the spring.Brazil, the third most affected c…
With a second wave of coronavirus infections underway in Europe, countries on the continent are once again the places where the COVID-19 infection numbers are rising quickest. France, Spain and the UK – all epicenters of the virus in spring – are once …
Two days after scoring a big win on election day, when Californians passed Proposition 22, a ballot measure that exempts gig economy companies from a law that would require them to classify most of their workers as employees rather than contractors, Ub…