Given a lot of noise about economic re-opening and abatement of the late 2020 wave of the pandemic, we expected BRIC countries PMIs to improve significantly in 1Q 2021 compared to 4Q 2020. Alas, the opposite took place:Brazil Manufacturing PMI fe…
Back on February 5th, I wrote in this report: The withholding data strongly suggests that more stimulus isn’t needed. As vaccine distribution widens, the economy…
A pitcher is worth a thousand words.
Great pitching beats good hitting.
The 5 day cycle projection is 4035-43. Almost there.
Chart.
Monetary policy can be implemented through outright purchases or sales of securities, which permanently changes the size of the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio.
Today’s Fed QE
Inequality is America’s Monster Id, and we’re continuing to fuel its future rampage daily.
There’s an old saying on Wall Street that one should “buy the rumor, sell the news”, a pithy way to express the efficient market theorem. By the time an event arrives, whatever it may be, the market will have fully digested the news and incorporated it into current prices. And then the market will move […]
The 6 month cycle up phase reasserted itself last week. All of the short term cycles up to 13 weeks resychronized with the 6 month…
Debt structures degenerate over time, as the boom is perpetuated by expanding quantities of debt of deteriorating quality. Archegos is emblematic of an out of control mania and a complete breakdown of responsible lending and regulatory oversight.
Despite some positive headline numbers on some labor market metrics, jobs creation in the U.S. is not progressing well-enough to claim any end in sight for the Covid19-induced recession