We track Treasury supply because Fed policy comprises only one side of the supply/demand equation. Treasury supply makes up the bulk of the other side.…
Federal withholding tax collections declined in September for the third straight month. Predicting the BLS jobs data is always a crapshoot, but after 3 months…
The dealers have significantly hedged their bond longs since April, but the price damage that we expected, in both bonds, stocks, and everything else, was…
The Fed remains shockingly behind the curve in raising rates. It hasn’t even been fully rubber stamping the market’s moves. This isn’t a yield curve…
What happened in the stock market on September 13 (-178 on the S&P and -1276 on the Dow), was inevitable. The timing was a complete…
In the last Treasury Supply update for subscribers I warned that the Treasury could do a big T- bill paydown at mid month, but that…
Part 1 is here. First, I want to reinforce the point that there are no accidents. So I’ll rehash the summary of this monthly tax…
Federal withholding tax collections declined in August. This was the second consecutive monthly decline after rising sharply and persistently throughout June. Subscribers, click here to…
I wrote the following in this Fed QT/Treasury Supply report on August 6. 8/6/22 Well, guess what. Time’s up. Party over. The Treasury has revised…
Rule Number One is “Don’t Fight the Fed.” But Wall Street and its willing herd have done just that for the past month. Stocks have…