Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also provide analysis and charts for David Stockman's Contra Corner which I developed for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs in the past 44 years, including a stint on Wall Street in both analytical and sales capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I worked as a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. My perspective is not of the Ivory Tower. It is from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches of the industries that I analyze and write about today.

These Numbers Could Push the Fed to Do Something Stupid

The Daily Treasury Statement data for the end of month August showed some improvement in total tax collections, including a slight uptick in withholding taxes and an even bigger increase in excise taxes.

The numbers suggest that an early summer slowdown has ended. After the expected downward revisions in June and July jobs data, the August uptick in jobs was not a fluke. And the excise tax data suggests strong retail sales.

So, not an altogether bad summer – if you happen to be a politician or government taxman. But what about for investors?

Click here to see what to expect.

The post These Numbers Could Push the Fed to Do Something Stupid appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.

Here’s What We Can Expect from a “Head Spinning” Nonfarm Payrolls Day

Wall Street traders await the first Friday of every month with bated breath.

Why? Because it’s Nonfarm Payrolls Day!

When the news is posted at 8:30 AM ET, the market often gyrates wildly in response. And today was no exception!

So let’s walk through exactly what happened in the markets this morning, and look at what impact we can expect this to have moving forward.

Click here to see

The post Here’s What We Can Expect from a “Head Spinning” Nonfarm Payrolls Day appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.

This Foreign Market “Contagion” Is About To Go Viral

Europe has always played a huge role in the US markets. The US Treasury reported that European investors and central banks held $1.6 trillion of US Treasury securities in June. More importantly they had purchased $114 billion of that over the past year, including $32 billion from April to June.

And although there’s no breakdown of US stock and corporate bond holdings by country, Treasury holdings are about one third of total foreign securities holdings. Assuming that ratio applies to European holders, then they hold a total of roughly $4.8 trillion in US assets, and added nearly $100 billion of that over the April-June period.
There’s little doubt that this has helped drive the stock market blowoff.  

That cash flows into the US markets. Even if they are not direct purchases of US stocks, when European investors buy Treasuries, most of those purchases are from US Primary Dealers. The dealers use some of that cash they get in those sales to Europeans to buy stocks. When European investors, or US corporations in Europe, buy US assets, that adds liquidity to the US system and fuel for the inflation of the US stock market bubble.

Click here to see what it is…

The post This Foreign Market “Contagion” Is About To Go Viral appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.