The market enters a pivotal week where bullish cycle structures at the short and intermediate levels must contend with intensifying geopolitical pressure. Whether the S&P 500 can clear immediate resistance to reach targets near xxxx will determine…
The profound calm which only apparently precedes and prophesies of the storm, is perhaps more awful than the storm itself; for, indeed, the calm is but the wrapper and envelope of the storm. – Herman Melville, Moby Dick
The Treasury market faces growing fragility as Primary Dealers are forced to absorb a relentless supply of government debt. To manage this “deal with the devil,” dealers have turned to extreme financial engineering, ballooning their leverage through re…
First quarter earnings have been boffo. The S&P 500 is on track for its sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. Financial media has declared the results a validation of the bull case. But it’s bogus, and those two sets of books prove it.
The beat was really a beating. The government’s own data proves it.
Cycles are in gear to the downside, except for the 4 week cycle, which has extended beyond its ideal bottom window. The 6-7 week cycle projection of xxxx is an outlier for now, but if projected channel support around xxxx breaks, this could turn into a…
Cycles are in gear to the downside, except for the 4 week cycle, which has extended beyond its ideal bottom window. The 6-7 week cycle projection of xxxx is an outlier for now, but if projected channel support around xxxx breaks, this could turn into a…
This morning, I posted my weekly Advanced Cycle Analytics report for Liquidity Trader subscribers. I began doing stock charts as a kid in the 1960s, and started tinkering with Hurst based cycle analysis in 1970. As stock charting has become increasingly technologically advanced I have developed new and better ways for measuring, depicting, and analyzing market movements, which I have featured in my reports to Liquidity Trader subscribers for over 25 years. I asked Claude to develop a synopsis of today’s report. Below is her effort, which I thought was rather spectacular, despite that I think that AI is usually crap.
The seasonal T-bill paydown tsunami has arrived. Since March 24, $220.8 billion in T-bill paydowns has flooded the market with cash, temporarily overwhelming every bearish structural force. We have been on the alert for this. It happens every year. The…
April has done markedly better than the all-time worst performance of March, but lagged the market. I continue to doubt the efficacy of the model under the current market regime. I again refrain from adding new picks, given the market’s volatility and …