The Wall Street Examiner

by Lee Adler, Friday, May 9, 2008, in Money and The Fed | Permalink |Comments (0)  

The Fed has done it again, draining $6.5 billion from the market in today’s OMO on top of over $10 billion yesterday. That brings the net drain on the week to over $20 billion, including the $25 billion added to the TAF. That means that the Fed reduced the SOMA by over $5 billion. Is it any wonder the market is down this week?

See yesterday’s weekly roundup in the Professional Edition Fed and Treasury Report, and rejoin us Monday for the next complete report. Stay up to date with the daily machinations of the Fed, Treasury, and foreign central banks in the US market in the Daily Fed report in the Professional Edition, Money Liquidity, and Real Estate Package. Try it risk free for 30 days. Don’t miss another day. Get the research and analysis you need to understand these critical forces and stay a step ahead of the markets. Click this link and get in RIGHT NOW!

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by Lee Adler, Friday, May 9, 2008, in Precious Metals, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0)  

Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

To discuss this, or any issues pertaining to the economy and the financial markets, visit our new forum.

by Russ Winter, Friday, May 9, 2008, in Russ Winter, Russ's Blog | Permalink |Comments (0)   Even as the talking heads and goon squads blow it out about the worst being over, a lots of things seem to be for sale right now. “Recapitalizing” hyper leveraged firms seems to be the order of the day. The deals are coming, fast and furious, and the terms offered to say the least, [...] To discuss this, or any issues pertaining to the economy and the financial markets, visit our new forum.

by Lee Adler, Thursday, May 8, 2008, in Professional Edition, Bellwethers | Permalink |Comments (0)  

13 week and 6 month cycle projections have been reached and some stocks have started down phases. Charts updated to 5/8/08. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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by Lee Adler, Thursday, May 8, 2008, in Today's Markets, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0)  

The market backed up on Thursday. 13 week and 6 month cycle projections continue to suggest the possibility of a higher high over the next couple of weeks, while 13 week cycle indicators hover at the point of definitive sell signals. Fed, Treasury and FCB data suggest that liquidity conditions are unfavorable for a continuation of the rally (see tonight’s Fed reports) but stranger things have happened. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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by Lee Adler, Thursday, May 8, 2008, in Money and The Fed, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0)  

UPDATE - The Fed continues to reduce the total amount of Fed credit outstanding taking total Fed credit to the lowest level since April 2006. Surprisingly, after the close of the market today the Fed released data showing that through Wednesday both PDCF and Discount Window borrowings were also lower. The Fed continues to take aggressive action to reduce the size of the monetary base. At the same time, foreign central banks also cut back this week, putting both the short term and intermediate FCB indicators on sell signals for the first time since May of 2007. Meanwhile the Treasury still has not announced the expected enormous CMB that will be needed to pay off $74 billion in maturing notes and bonds next week. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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by Lee Adler, Thursday, May 8, 2008, in Precious Metals, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0)  

Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

To discuss this, or any issues pertaining to the economy and the financial markets, visit our new forum.

by Lee Adler, Thursday, May 8, 2008, in Today's Markets, Best of Capitalstool.com | Permalink |Comments (22)  

This is another in our occasional series, The Best of Capitalstool.com. Thanks to Schonthaler for their thoughts!

The Big Walk Away is coming.

It’s only a matter of time before the Big Walk Away becomes even bigger. That’s right, when you get right down to it, why does anyone have to meet their obligations? Just take the Big Walk Away. Why should homeowners try to make payments on over valued property? Just walk away and all your troubles will be over.

In fact your Government is telling you not to worry, Uncle Sam will bail you out. Your government is bailing out huge corporate institutions at time when the Federal government can’t meet its obligations. So why not walk? You have nothing to lose. If leveraged buyouts were rewarded and are now backstopped by your tax dollars, then why not get some of your tax money back?

Now thousands of individuals are taking the Big Walk Away. But wait, is it limited to just the consumer? No. Every institution will take the Big Walk Away - everything from Corporations to Cities to States.

Click to read this post and others in this thread. Follow all the posts daily on Capitalstool.com’s Stool Pigeons Wire, at Intraday Stool during trading hours, and Mark to Market in the evening and on weekends. Enjoy and join in on the insights and the fun from some of the savviest traders and observers of the market scene on the web!

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by Russ Winter, Thursday, May 8, 2008, in Russ Winter, Russ's Blog | Permalink |Comments (0)   Any intelligent observer who understands the fundamental concepts and realities of a Ponzi finance based economy knows that borrowers will move from one worm hole to another until credit is exhausted and withdrawn. Meanwhile the same cast of characters who never saw the mortgage rout develop, fail to see a new disaster coming. The last [...] To discuss this, or any issues pertaining to the economy and the financial markets, visit our new forum.

by Lee Adler, Wednesday, May 7, 2008, in Today's Markets, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0)  

They gave the market a little shake on Wednesday. Bulls may applaud the “correction”, but it may be something more sinister. It could be an indication that there are no more “fools” left to feed this rally, and that the bear is about to return. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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by Lee Adler, Wednesday, May 7, 2008, in Money and The Fed, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (2)  

The Fed gave the market a little help today with a big repo, but they took a lot of it back with a sale of permanent assets from the SOMA for the second day in a row. Once again Bernanke and Co. is taking away from the SOMA (System Open Market Account) what it gives to the TAF (Term Auction Facility), resulting in no additional liquidity on balance. It hurts the market because it robs the Primary Dealer Peters to pay the poor bank Pauls.

The Fed also has to deal with a big wad of new short term Treasury supply hitting the market tomorrow, and the expectation that the Treasury will also need to float an enormous Cash Management Bill (CMB) next week to pay off $74 billion in maturing Notes and Bonds. That’s not to mention that they are just having problems paying the daily bills of government as revenues are collapsing. The increasing pressure is reflected in the relentless rise of T-bill rates since the day before taxes were collected on April 15. The corollary in the market is a rising dolor. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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by Lee Adler, Wednesday, May 7, 2008, in Precious Metals, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0)  

Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

To discuss this, or any issues pertaining to the economy and the financial markets, visit our new forum.

by Russ Winter, Wednesday, May 7, 2008, in Russ Winter, Russ's Blog | Permalink |Comments (0)   Fitch has some good background out on the major lenders in the home equity lines of credit (HELOC) market. Topping the exposure list are walking dead firms like WAMU and CountryFried. Institutional Risk Analyst has more comments out on the evolving CFC situation. Looking at the HELOC exposure we also see a couple names [...] To discuss this, or any issues pertaining to the economy and the financial markets, visit our new forum.

by Lee Adler, Tuesday, May 6, 2008, in Today's Markets, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0)  

The market trundled higher on Tuesday, overcoming a spate of bad news on Fannie Mae. It also overcame a big Fed drain in Open Market Operations. We can only surmise that the cash must still be flowing from the FCBs. There may also be some portfolio adjustments going on as bonds get sold. Some of the proceeds are being switched into stocks. The question on everyone’s mind is how long these trends can persist. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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by Lee Adler, Tuesday, May 6, 2008, in Money and The Fed, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0)  

This update includes the impact of the TAF not included in the report posted earlier.

The Fed is, surprisingly, having trouble keeping the Fed Funds rate up to the target, at the same time as T-bill rates are soaring. The rate at today’s 4 week bill auction jumped 30 basis points since last week to 1.55. It wasn’t so many weeks ago that they were virtually at zero. At the same time Fed Funds sank to 1.85 last night. As a result, the Fed withdrew a huge chunk of cash from the market today (See Open Market Operations at end of report). But this dichotomy is probably temporary. I would expect Fed Funds to start coming under upward pressure next week as the expected huge increases in Treasury supply begin to hit the market. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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by Lee Adler, Tuesday, May 6, 2008, in Money and The Fed, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0)  

Latest cycle conditions and projections for the US Dollar Index and 10 Year Treasury Yield. Click links to download report in pdf format. (WSE Pro subscribers only). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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by Lee Adler, Tuesday, May 6, 2008, in Today's Markets, Money and The Fed, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0)  

Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

To discuss this, or any issues pertaining to the economy and the financial markets, visit our new forum.

by Russ Winter, Tuesday, May 6, 2008, in Russ Winter, Russ's Blog | Permalink |Comments (0)   Fannie Mae results are out (10-Q is here) and there is a lot to digest in short order. The pieces of the puzzle that I am immediately drawn to are the delinquency and loan performance numbers. My general observation is that because FNM is a political arm, they have never met a pig they [...] To discuss this, or any issues pertaining to the economy and the financial markets, visit our new forum.

by Lee Adler, Monday, May 5, 2008, in Today's Markets, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0)  

The market had an orderly pullback on Monday as some traders decided to take their chips and slip quietly out the back door in the wake of one big deal being called off and another beginning to smell like a dead body. The question is whether this is the beginning of a more significant correction, or just a pause. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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by Lee Adler, Monday, May 5, 2008, in Money and The Fed, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0)  

The Treasury came to market with the first of its much larger T-bill auctions and the auction results showed it. Not only that, but secondary market T-bill rates are up another 10 basis points today extending a “crash up” going into its 7th week. Meanwhile the Fed did a minor net add in OMO (See Open Market Operations and Primary Dealer Credit Facility at end of report), continuing to keep a tight rein on total Fed credit outstanding even after the announcement of additions to the amounts to be allotted, and additional liberalizations of collateral rules in a couple of ASO (Alphabet Soup Operations). In case you missed it, I posted a few comments on the public side of the site on Friday. The Treasury market holds within it the portents of rising rates in general. I think the Fed will have a very tough time holding Fed Funds at 2% in the weeks ahead. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

To discuss this, or any issues pertaining to the economy and the financial markets, visit our new forum.

by Lee Adler, Monday, May 5, 2008, in Precious Metals, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0)  

Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

To discuss this, or any issues pertaining to the economy and the financial markets, visit our new forum.

by Russ Winter, Monday, May 5, 2008, in Russ Winter, Russ's Blog | Permalink |Comments (0)   In the whodathunk department Standard and Poor downgraded CountryFried Financial’s (CFC) bond debt because, drum roll please, Bankamerica (BAC) is suggesting that they will have nothing to do with it. Ratings agency S&P cut Countrywide’s (CFC) debt to junk Friday, citing Bank of America’s (BAC) failure to commit to a guarantee of Countrywide’s obligations after Bank [...] To discuss this, or any issues pertaining to the economy and the financial markets, visit our new forum.

by Lee Adler, Sunday, May 4, 2008, in Today's Markets, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0)  

The market has reached a moment of truth. Some sectors have reached longer term resistance line and level clusters. Others have a little room to run. Some short term cycle projections have been reached. Intermediate projections are a bit higher, but not materially so. It may not be Monday, but over the next week or so we should begin to see signs whether the market will extend its run or whether 13 week and 6 month cycles will roll over. My hunch, based on the weight of the evidence described in the report, is that… Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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by Lee Adler/The Wall Street Examiner, Saturday, May 3, 2008, in Russ Winter, Russ's Blog | Permalink |Comments (0)   A new Radio Free Wall Street podcast has been posted with Russ, Aaron Krowne, and Lee Adler. Includes a 12 minute free preview for non subscribers. Related notes below. Example of cutting through the crap on government employment data. First chart shows reported employment in residential construction down from 3.6 million to 3.0 million. US housing [...] To discuss this, or any issues pertaining to the economy and the financial markets, visit our new forum.

by Lee Adler, Saturday, May 3, 2008, in Subscription Podcasts | Permalink |Comments (0)  

Lee Adler, Russ Winter, and Aaron Krowne analyze the impact of key financial events on the financial markets and economy. Not a subscriber? Click here for a free extended preview of this podcast.

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FREE SAMPLE podcast. This lively program from September 12, 2007 will give you a taste of what our regular podcasts are like. Click here to listen, and while you are doing that, subscribe! Don’t miss another rock ‘em, sock ‘em, shake ‘em up chat, packed with important insights from the Radio Free Wall Street team!

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by Lee Adler, Friday, May 2, 2008, in Money and The Fed | Permalink |Comments (6)  

Before we get to “the thing I didn’t write” but warned about in a variety of ways, here are a few tidbits out of the Fed today.

First off, the Fed pulled $8.75 billion in cash out of the market today in Open Market Operations. They also made a big announcement regarding SOHASO (Sleight of Hand Alphabet Soup Operations).

As the mainstream financial infomercial media dutifully reported, the Fed announced that it will increase the size of the twice monthly TAF auctions to $75 billion from $50 billion, intimating that the Fed is again adding liquidity to the system. That wasn’t true in the first place, but why let a little thing like truth get in the way of financial market manipulation, marketing, and distribution. My guess is that they will yet again do it with SOHASO, simply taking the quarters out of one ear to make them disappear in the other, rather than adding any net liquidity to the system. The process probably started with today’s $6.25 billion reduction in repos outstanding along with the outright sale of $2.5 billion in Treasuries from the SOMA. I suspect that there will be more outright sales and redemptions announced next week, although sooner or later the Fed will probably have to revert to Print mode.
(Continued)

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by Lee Adler, Friday, May 2, 2008, in General News and Views | Permalink |Comments (0)  

This week’s podcast will be posted Saturday morning 5/3/08 ET US.  See you then!

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by Lee Adler, Friday, May 2, 2008, in Precious Metals, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0)  

Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

To discuss this, or any issues pertaining to the economy and the financial markets, visit our new forum.

by Russ Winter, Friday, May 2, 2008, in Russ Winter, Russ's Blog | Permalink |Comments (0)   The dirty secret necessary to “understand” how US stock markets are so punch crazy lies with the open check foreign central banks (FCBs). For reasons that we can only speculate on, FCBs have seriously accelerated their purchases of severely overpriced US cans of worms (fictitious capital or FC). This in turn has created an altered [...] To discuss this, or any issues pertaining to the economy and the financial markets, visit our new forum.

by Lee Adler, Thursday, May 1, 2008, in Today's Markets, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0)  

The market surprised bears, and probably quite a few bulls as well, with a one way rally on Thursday that sent the SPX through a major resistance level, completing a big base pattern. All 3 major indices have now broken out of similar bases, implying significantly higher prices over the next few months. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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by Lee Adler, Thursday, May 1, 2008, in Money and The Fed, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (6)  

The markets face a crucial turning point in the actions of the Fed, Treasury, and FCBs over the next two weeks. The Treasury, which is broke, faces a huge rollover of intermediate and long term paper, plus it has to pay for the ecostimulus. At the same time that the market will face this enormous increase in the government’s short term borrowing, which should put upward pressure on money market rates, the Fed somehow has to defend a 2% funds rate. How will it do that, other than with massive injections of cash? Finally, the Fed has had record levels of help from FCBs over the past several months, and this week was no exception with FCBs adding record amounts of Treasuries to their holdings at the Fed. Can they keep up the pace? Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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by Russ Winter, Thursday, May 1, 2008, in Russ Winter, Russ's Blog | Permalink |Comments (0)   The drum beat of very serious global inflation continues to ratchet up. The UK is now reporting nasty factory price increases. Incredibly the debate in the US centers around the notion that the Fed pauses at 2% is some how sound policy. The Wizards yesterday pulled out the familiar “inflation expectations” and other Orwellian script. [...] To discuss this, or any issues pertaining to the economy and the financial markets, visit our new forum.

by Lee Adler, Thursday, May 1, 2008, in Precious Metals, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0)  

Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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by Lee Adler, Wednesday, April 30, 2008, in Today's Markets, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0)  

Normally the knee jerk reaction after a Fed meeting is the head fake, with a reversal the following day kicking off the “real move”. In this case however, cycle based screening measures are indicating danger ahead, and some broad market indicators are on short term sell signals. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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by Lee Adler, Wednesday, April 30, 2008, in Today's Markets | Permalink |Comments (0)  

No surprise, the Fed Funds target ¼ point. It also added reserves for a second day (details at end of report). Next week the Treasury will sell 5 and 10 year notes in the amounts that had been forecast, but in a press release today the Treasury confirmed what we have foreseen and reported for weeks, that the seasonal Treasury paydowns that normally occur after April 15 will fall far short of their usual mark. Although the Treasury will inexplicably pay down a big chunk of long term debt next week, it will need to pound the market with a big wad of new T-bills to help pay for the ecostimulus package. With heavy Treasury supply due to vacuum up all funds in the short end of the money market rates should go higher in spite of the Fed’s actions. If the Fed wants to keep the lid on, they will need to do heavy liquidity injections. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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by Russ Winter, Wednesday, April 30, 2008, in Russ Winter, Russ's Blog | Permalink |Comments (0)   Of late there has been a big ramp in consumer and retail stocks as the conventional wisdom is getting all lathered up about Joe Ultra Light Sixpack taking rebate checks and running out to splurge at the mall. Does this make any sense at all, or is it just more Kool-Aid? I suggest the [...] To discuss this, or any issues pertaining to the economy and the financial markets, visit our new forum.

by Lee Adler, Wednesday, April 30, 2008, in Precious Metals, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0)  

Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

To discuss this, or any issues pertaining to the economy and the financial markets, visit our new forum.