Short term cycles have entered up phases. A 6 month cycle low is due, and a 13 week cycle upturn is overdue but most technical indicators are still weak. Here’s what to look for.
Treasury supply continues to bulge, thanks to the yawning Federal budget defecate, and the fact that the Treasury must raise $30 billion per month to repay the Fed, which is demanding the money back that it lent to the US Government under QE. A tidal wave of supply is set to inundate Wall Street. This report explains, again, how bad…
Gold and and the mining stocks have broken out. It’s a big deal. Here’s what it means.
The market smashed the long term uptrend channel dating back to February 2016 last week. That signals the end of the bull market, although there may still be one or two head fakes before the bear gets to sink its teeth in.
The Fed has shed $293 billion in assets since mid October 2017, when it started the “bloodletting,” or balance sheet “normalization” program. As of this month, it is draining $50 billion per month from the banking system. Anybody who thinks that this is not a problem for the stock market is kidding themselves. This report details why you need to…
Even the ginned up, phony deposit growth that we saw in the first half of the year slowed in August. Here are some great pictures of the trends, and why they’re horrible news for US markets.
Two key trading cycles are headed in opposite directions. This juxtaposition has a story to tell us, as we continue to swing a couple of gold mining picks.
The market has pulled back to multiple support lines in the 2870 area and market cycle indicators are weakening. Here’s what to look for.
The stabilization of withholding taxes, along with rising excise taxes suggest that top line economic data will continue to show increases. Here’s how we know, and what that means for your portfolio. Here is today’s updated list including new buys, sells, short sales, cover shorts, and updated stops, as well as performance metrics for this month.
Stocks have extended their rally in the face of flattening macro liquidity. That has brought them to a record overextension versus liquidity, even more extended than they were at the January market peak. Here’s what this means for the stock market.
Gold has a problem in the short term, while a few miners show promise.
There were a slew of signs last week that a 10-12 month cycle top is starting to form.
Posts from Other Publishers
The Smart Money Flow Index is a sentiment index attempting to measure “skittishness” in the markets. Particularly at stock market opening in the US for the Dow.
From the perspective of monitoring an unfolding global crisis, things turned only more concerning this week. The Shanghai Composite declined to 2,450 in early Friday trading, the low since November 2014 – and down almost 26% y-t-d. Across the globe i…
If it wasn’t before, it is definitely a slump now. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said today that the sales of existing homes across the US in September 2018 fell more than 3% seasonally-adjusted from August. At just 5.15 million (SAAR), that’s the lowest volume in almost three years. Hurricane Harvey had managed to […]
Yes, the REAL effective Fed Funds Target Rate has gone POSITIVE … for the first time since 2008 and tbe beginning of The Fed’s quantitative easing.
It must be Janet Yellen and Lael Brainard singing to create inflation!
The Mandate of Heaven will be withdrawn, and the autocratic regime overthrown.The absolute confidence that China’s political structure is permanent and forever is reminiscent of the absolute confidence in the 1980s that the USSR’s political structure w…
The Steering Committee for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned last week that tighter financial conditions globally are a risk. A bit late perhaps, but that’s how these things go. You can tell matters are serious when Economists are shaken out from their global growth slumber. The IMF wants everyone to know that this could […]
A recent MarketWatch post by Ashoka Mody, @AshokaMody, detailing the absurdities of the IMF growth forecasts is a great read (see https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-imf-is-still-too-optimistic-about-global-growth-and-thats-bad-news-for-investor…
A world without opportunity is a far more dangerous one than a world only temporarily stripped of it.
Pimco’s monthly update for October 2018 published earlier this week contains a handy table, showing the markets changes in key asset classes since September 2008, mapping the recovery since the depths of the Global Financial Crisis.The table is a revea…
Well, ain’t this a kick in the head.
US existing home sales YoY fell for the seventh straight month, -4.10% in September.
Existing home sales median price YoY has cooled to 4.2% YoY while inventory remains below the long-run average/
Is Fed Cha…