All of our mining picks were sold or stopped out for a tidy profit overall as trailing stops got hit. Meanwhile the metal is at an inflection point. Here’s what to expect.
A little traveling music, please! And away we go! Money supplies the music, and the US Treasury is the band, thanks to the government shutdown. As a result, a technical indicator that I developed in 2005, which measures the market’s breadth and speed in a single number. has set a world record by a mile. Here’s what it means.
Prior to the onset of QE in 2009, a normal reserve position meant tight reserves. There were virtually no excess reserves on the Fed’s balance sheet. That means that the drains will continue until the balance sheet reaches a tight reserve position. Except that that can’t happen because the markets and the economy would have a really bad accident, first.…
The uptrend in gold looks solid with new upside projections on intermediate swing cycles. But there are some chinks in the mining stock picture. This report tells what to look for to see if their trend will hold up or pull back again. While there are no new mining picks, in an abundance of caution we’re closing out a couple…
Short term cycle projections are eye popping. They suggest the market is going much higher in the short run. Here’s what to look for on the upside as well as the parameters that would signal reversal.
Growth in the European banking system driven by the ECBs smoke and mirrors and a housing bubble is about to slow even more as the ECB ends QE. This report gives you lots of charts to show you where things have been. And we look at where they’re likely to go now, along with what that all means to you…
Of course you know that the 20% standard that the Wall Street finfotainment media uses for calling a rally a bull market is pure nonsense. But on December 24 HUI closed at a level that was slightly more than 20% above its low close back in September. And over the last couple of weeks, prices have hung around and even…
The market remains in a short term meltup channel. But there’s a key technical level it must break to keep the rally going and prevent a possible resumption of the crash.
The media had been excusing the stock market decline, and explaining the bond market rally in December by saying that investors were worried about slowing economic growth. Federal tax collection data for December shows that that is a false narrative. The data and charts show why this false narrative is dangerous to your financial health.
Treasury demand trends have looked bullish in the short run, but they’re just laying the seeds of that, “Bullish? Not so much!” hangover.
We’re ditching one of our 8 mining picks. The rest remain profitable on gold’s strength. There are new targets on the metal.
Last week I wrote that a crash was under way, but I added, “If there is a snapback rally, I’d look for resistance around 2490-2520. The market would need to close above 2530 on Monday to break the crash channel.” We got the rally, and lo and behold, it hit 2520 on Friday. The crash channel is broken. But a…
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And no, that was not a seasonal effect. Existing home sales declined 6.4% MoM in December, the largest decline since November 2015.
The stock market has been on an amazing tear since December 26. The government shutdown (GSD) began December 22. Coincidence? No. I told you about the belated epiphany I had about this back on January 11:
That short term factor is the government shutdown. That’s right. It’s bullish. Forgive me for telling you this only now, but unfortunately, it just dawned on me. I’ve been speculating about it for a week or so, but now the data confirms my suspicions.
This rally isn’t business as usual. It’s not about what the media is telling you: that the economy is fine, inflation is low, and the Fed will not raise interest rates as much as originally feared.
One thing is the same about this market, though. And that’s the underlying principle that drives all markets. The market has moved, as always, because of money. It’s pretty simple. When there’s not enough money around, the market declines. When there’s a surplus, the market rises.
Until December 22, there wasn’t enough money around. But then, something changed.
Since December 26, a tidal wave of money has sent the market surfing higher. That money isn’t coming from the usual source, the Fed and its fellow central banks. They’re going the other way.
Nope. This time it’s coming from the US Treasury. And this time is also different because the people controlling the money dynamics aren’t motivated by long term economic factors. They are motivated by politics. That makes this a whole different kind of ballgame than the one we usually play.
The post The Government Shutdown Is Still Bullish So Here’s What To Do appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.
“When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing.” Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince (2007)New York | Earnings have turned out to be a snoozer rather than the recession step down some gloomy souls predicted. Even if the economy is slowing, does it matter for earnings, which keep rising ever higher as net revenues stagnate? Our big takeaway from last week was the remarkable consistency in
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded economic growth for the Eurozone to 1.6 for 2019. weoupdatejan2019. But Japan is even worse at a forecast of 1.1% for 2019.
Russia is also forecast to be sub-2% as 1.6%.
The Eurozone and Japan are …
The net result of a rigged system is the vast majority of the gains in income and wealth flow to the very tippy-top of the wealth/power pyramid.We often hear how the system (i.e. our economy) is rigged to benefit the few at the expense of the many, but…
American homeownership has been on the decline (for millenials), and Federal Reserve researchers point to the high cost of college as one culprit. (Gee. ya think?)
You might not be able to time the market, but you can certainly be strategic about how you manage your portfolio.
But being strategic takes more than following a “gut feeling.” You need research and expertise to back up your decision-making.
Please join Doug Noland and David McAlvany this Thursday, January 24th, at 4:00PM EST/ 2:00pm MST for the Tactical Short Q4 recap conference call, “The 2019 Secular Shift: Beginning the Long, Difficult Road.” Click here to register.The S&P500 advan…
Joseph Otting is the acting director of FHFA while Mark Calabria is Trump’s nominee to be the new FHFA director and Fannie Mae – Freddie Mac regulator. (Bloomberg) — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shares soared Friday amid fresh reports that the Trump Administration is working on proposal that would recommend freeing the mortgage-finance giants from … Continue reading Fannie-Freddie Soar on FHFA Chief’s Conservatorship Comment (Let Our GSEs Go!) →
Central banks are like Willy Wonka to markets offering golden tickets. We have the People’s Bank of China wildly expanding their repo purchases to stimulate their economy and have just announced massive investments.