There’s good reason to think that a 13 week cycle low is forming despite lower projections.
Composite liquidity continues to rise, but at a slower pace than in the second quarter as the Fed has slowed QE. That reduces the cash flowing into Primary Dealer accounts, which in turn contributes to a slowing in secondary liquidity drivers.
“Slowing” is a relative word, however. Historically, the numbers remain gargantuan.
No, something else is holding the market back. Here’s what that something is, and what we’re going to do about it.
It took all day, but they finally mounted a short covering stampede in yesterday’s last hour. The result left the market shy of repairing the breakdown. The indicators are ambiguous this morning. They’re not signaling yet whether there’s a second roun…
From the bowels of the NY Fed to the coffers of the Primary Dealers, here’s the latest emanation. I take the bull by the horns and decode the emanations for you.
The ES fuctures are up 22 points from their overnight low here at 5:25 AM ET, but that’s still down 46 from Friday’s close. It ran into multiple support lines and levels and blew away a 5 day cycle projection of 3260 at the low of 3248. The hourly indi…
An important low is due right now but bears have a chance to break the market. This report shows you the setup and gives you picks to play both ways. Current long/short swing trade chart picks are up 6.9% (100% cash basis) on average, with an average holding period of 3 weeks. This week I…
Surprise, surprise! They pumped the money in but the market didn’t rise.
The Fed has been in the process of pumping $88 billion into Primary Dealer accounts this week in the form of its regular monthly MBS purchase settlements. Most of it is done. $22.7 billion of it will settle on Monday September 21. That will be the last MBS settlement until October 14-21.
Meanwhile, the Fed continues to purchase and settle Treasuries virtually every day. Over the past week that’s amounted to a total of about $37 billion. That means that a total of $103 billion in QE settled this week. That’s how much cash the Fed pumped into Primary Dealer accounts.
It didn’t matter. The stock market sucked gas. Bonds treaded water. It sure looks as though the Fed has somehow managed to magically peg bond yields just below 0.80% on the 10 year. The Treasury issued $104 billion in new coupon paper over the past week and that didn’t depress the market? It’s a miracle.
But isn’t it strange that the amount of QE and the amount of Treasury coupon issuance was virtually the same.
But some other stuff sure as heck is, and you need to know about it.
Call me a cranky old man. OK. So that’s been true forever. But I’m not convinced yet that this is a bearish setup. At least in the very short run.
That said, if they can’t poke through 3365 in the early going in NY, I’m converting back to my nat…
Direct from the bowels of the NY Fed
So far, it’s just a triple bottom, and nobody knows whether it breaks or it holds. But if you look closely, if it holds here, it’s 3 higher lows on the ES. So unless they take out 3309, nothing has happened yet. It’s just a downtrend within an uptrend …