Primary Dealers are pulling back from Treasury absorption — not by choice, but by constraint. With inventories falling despite relentless coupon issuance, the data confirms what recent auctions have already hinted: dealers are maxed out.
This report…
A massive increase in volatility has repeatedly broken historically normal wave bandwidths, signaling abnormal wave amplitudes as the trend goes parabolic. Trend support around 3295-3300 was seen as critical in the short run. It broke, and then whipsaw…
This rally has been a grinder. Since it began, setups have been harder to trust, in a market driven more by headlines than structure. I’ve been too cautious, as short-term waves reversed with near unprecedented ferocity. But the charts are starting to …
The market is still riding a powerful meltup, and short and intermediate-term cycle projections are pointing even higher than they were last week. The Moody’s downgrade has triggered a pullback this morning, but the selloff must follow through to break…
Treasury auction demand looks strong — but it’s an illusion. Primary Dealers are faking demand at an unprecedented scale, hiding a collapse in real investment appetite. This Special Report by Lee Adler shows exactly how deep the rot runs.
Yogi Berra famously said, “You can observe a lot by watching.” I’ve been watching markets since the late 1960s. As a young trader in the…
The bear market is here. Structural support has broken across all major indexes. Lee Adler’s Cycle Wave model confirms full-cycle alignment to the downside. The April 6 Technical Trader report lays out the timing, structure, and exposure strategy for c…
This isn’t a recap. The breakdown is still unfolding—and everything I’ve done this year has pointed to it. The March 31 Technical Trader laid out…
Wall Street tracked sentiment and flows. Liquidity Trader tracked the dealers—those who make the market. And the cracks are visible.
Primary Dealer leverage has broken above 120% of Treasury and MBS holdings. Dealers are long, underhedged, and overe…
Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs mark more than a policy shift—they redefine how capital interprets risk. The Norrholm panel explores what happens when markets stop pricing efficiency and start pricing intention. Tariffs are no longer tools—they’re frameworks. This isn’t just a trade realignment. It’s the emergence of a new allocative order.