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How Do You Get A September Rate Cut?

When the eurodollar futures curve first inverted a year ago in the wake of May 29, 2018, it was the market beginning to hedge against serious and rising risks of something that would force the Federal Reserve to turn around. When that might happen, or how many cuts would eventually follow, those were questions the […]

Bank Margins Squeezed by Unsafe Fed Policies

New York | A year ago in The Institutional Risk Analyst, we predicted that net interest income for the US banking industry would flatten out and decline around Q1 2019. Sure enough, that is precisely what has happened. We wrote in The IRA Bank Book for Q1 2019:”The cost of funds for US banks continues to grow at four times the rate of interest income, suggesting that the net-interest margin earned by banks may start to decline in 2019. Rising funding costs are being felt the most by smaller

Collapse

Let’s call a spade a spade: The month of May was a month of collapse. Collapse in bullish narratives, collapse in trade talks, collapse in yields, collapse in technical structures, collapse in […]

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