Whether or not a full-scale recession shows up in the US is an open question. There’s less of one in US industry. The “manufacturing recession” we last saw of Euro$ #3 is becoming clearer as a repeat property in Euro$ #4. According to the Federal Reserve, May was a relatively good month for industry – […]
Tax collections were strong in May except for a dip that coincided with the Nonfarm Payrolls survey. Here’s why that’s unequivocally bad news for the…
Retail Sales rose just 3.46% year-over-year (unadjusted) in May 2019. The estimate for April was revised substantially higher, now suggesting growth of 5.6%. Altogether, however, consumer spending continues to be unusually weak. How unusual? The 6-month average, a better gauge of growth conditions given the noisy nature of the series, is now below 3% for […]
If you went panic chasing into stocks following Jay Powell’s ‘ready to act’ speech on June 4 on the expectation for imminent rate cuts you just got thrown a curveball: Economic data […]
If we look at these charts, it looks like only the top 10%, or perhaps the top 20% at best, might qualify as “middle class” by the metrics described below.The conventional definition of working class is based on income and education:the worki…
Once you realize negative yielding sovereign bonds aren’t investments, they are balance sheet tools for global banks, things start to fall into place. I had the honor to chat with the fellas at Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. In a world where stocks are the media kings it’s good every once in a while to talk […]
There are many market charts to track and most headlines are focused on the $DJIA, $SPX and $NDX, but there are other key index charts of interest, especially at this time. I […]
As noted earlier this week, the world’s two big hopes for the global economy in the second half are pinned on the US labor market continuing to exert its purported strength and Chinese authorities stimulating out of every possible (monetary) opening. Incoming data, however, continues to point to the fallacies embedded within each. The US […]
Inflation always brings out an emotional response. Far be it for me to defend Economists, but their concept is at least valid – if not always executed convincingly insofar as being measurable. An inflation index can be as meaningful as averaging the telephone numbers in a phone book (for anyone who remembers what those things […]
Short term interest rates have fallen sharply in recent weeks. Wall Street says that falling interest rates mean the economy is weak. Therefore the Fed…