The more uncomfortable the question, the more dissembling the pseudo-scientific rant as reply.
Revised estimates from the Federal Reserve are beginning to suggest another area for concern in the US economy. There hadn’t really been all that much supply side capex activity taking place to begin with. Despite the idea of an economic boom in 2017, businesses across the whole economy just hadn’t been building like there was […]
The rules of interpretation that apply to the payroll reports also apply to other data series like retail sales. The monthly changes tend to be noisy. Even during the best of times there might be a month way off trend. On the other end, during the worst of times there will be the stray good […]
The beat goes on. The Treasury announced a 30 year TIPS issue today, bringing net new supply for the month so far to $119 billion.
Markets are super noisy and jerky right now. Yield panic, recession concerns, headlines and tweets bringing about massive price swings in any direction. It can spin anyone’s head. Let’s step back and […]
The uptrend is particularly hot in loans to non bank financial institutions. That is composed largely of margin and repo loans. It’s clear that this borrowing has been a prime driver of the rallies in stocks and bonds. Live by leverage, die by leverage.
The data shows that the end is nigh.
After a big day like yesterday, I like to get a little long term stock market chart perspective.
The idea that everything will be solved if we borrow a couple more trillion and give it away is the dominant paradigm.Here in the decay phase of Imperial Pretensions, The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity.&…
Some further odds and ends of European data. Beginning with Continent-wide Industrial Production. Germany is leading the system lower, but it’s not all just Germany. And though manufacturing and trade are thought of as secondary issues in today’s services economies, the GDP estimates appear to confirm trade in goods as still an important condition and […]
The key takeaway from Europe’s economic data dump today isn’t that the whole Continental economy is poised on the verge of recession, though that’s thrust of what’s being written about most. The reason is simple; this is all highly unexpected in the mainstream. Going by official accounts alone, there was never a hint of trouble […]