The potential for a consequential disruption in China’s supply chains appears to be vastly under-appreciated.Despite the current drop in stocks (less than 1.5% as this is written), there’s a tremendous reservoir of complacency about the econo…
It’s that time of the year again when another exuberant rally gets too cocky, produces massive overbought readings as everybody is trampling long into stocks, is ignoring all the warning signs and […]
The 6 month cycle has probably topped out but long term charts tell us to maintain perspective. Here’s what comes next.
Monetary policy can be implemented through outright purchases or sales of securities, which permanently changes the size of the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio.
Dealers cut back their fixed income inventories ever so slightly over the past month. They also increased their hedges, but again, slightly. They are still near historical record net long positions, and still carry historic levels of leverage.
With a bulge in Treasury supply on the way, is this where the bond market might trigger them throwing up their hands and saying WTF, despite the Fed?
Some market perspectives on this Coronavirus. It was listed as one of the risk factors I outlined in Lurking Risks and it appears to now be indeed market impacting as the virus […]
Restrictions that allow a significant number of people to move about, either with official approval or unsanctioned “black market” activity, cannot stop the spread of contagious diseases.Like everyone else, I’ve been reading the mainstream media report…
And then it happened. Rejection. And with rejection come technical consequences. Perhaps the start of the first correction of 2020, the first correction since the Fed went wild on the intervention front […]
Any development posing risk to China’s vulnerable Bubble rather quickly becomes a pressing global issue.
First they think you’re crazy and then they’ll join you. On January 14th I outlined a rather obvious appearing correlation between the Fed’s repo operations and the market’s behavior: Every day, no […]