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Les Dents de La Mer, AKA Jaws! Stock Market Trading Setup for Wednesday, February 12, 2020

The Great White shark is closing its jaws. Bears have been eaten and digested already. Now it’s the bulls’ turn.

I’m not saying that the market sharks will now eat the bulls. Just that it’s their turn. But it’s been their turn before and they just passed gas and kept going.

Liquidity moves markets!

Follow the money. Find the profits! 

Will this market now fart higher?

The hourly chart of the ES futures suggest that a push to 3375 is in order. Then we roll over.  Then the question is how far. 

The first test will be at the 35 hour moving average now at 3363. If that breaks, the market should then target a couple of support levels just below. Those are the last pivot low at 3349, and the rising 70 hour MA and short term channel center line, which are closing in on 3349. So that general area should be good for a bounce.

I’ll give you a look at what might happen if there’s no pullback today, in the daily chart down below.

ES Futures Hourly Chart

Over in China, there have now been 8 straight up days since the opening low on Cornahoho Virus Gap Day. The gap is all but closed.

The Shag High Composite is now at 2926. In the Grand and Glorious Prophecies of the Land of the Yellow River, and various other plumbing and drainage issues, we saw on Gap Day that the market would probably rally back to the busted trendline. Indeed the oracles foresaw this. And it was good.

Truthfully, I don’t see any sign that this is about to let up. The near term target looks like 2975. On any pullback, whether today, or in the year 2929, look for support at the trend centerline, or the last pivot low. Those are now at 2927 and 2859.

China Stock Market Chart

Back to the daily chart of the US fucutures, if they don’t break 3367 on the downside today, then look for 3400. God help the bears if 3400 doesn’t hold.

S&P Futures Chart

Below is the S&P index (cash) hourly chart. That little green oval at the far right is where the futures have been trading this morning. The cash index should at least test yesterday’s high today.

I say at least. Because the Hurst 5 day cycle projection is 3390.

S&P 500 Hourly Chart

The 5 day cycle oscillator is not quite on a sell signal yet. However, the SPX cash would need to stay above 3366 on my double secret probation 10 minute bar chart to keep the up phase intact.

“And that’s the way it is, Wednesday, February 12, 2020.” 

From Zadar, Croatia, good morning. 

Where have you gone Walter Cronkite? Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you.

Meanwhile, for the big picture on weekly and monthly swings, and the long term, plus my tactical recommendations, see the weekly Technical Trader report. Try it risk free for 90 days! 

Meanwhile, here’s my latest on the Fed balance sheet, or Fed BS for short.

Not QE? The Financial Times Is Either Stupid or Lying

The pause in the growth of the Fed’s balance sheet over the past 6 weeks isn’t what the pundits are telling you. Some are saying that it’s evidence that the Fed is not doing QE. They’re either gaslighting, or clueless. But we know what it is, and we know what happens now.

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Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also publish LiquidityTrader.com, and was lead analyst for Sure Money Investor, of blessed memory. I developed David Stockman's Contra Corner for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I was considered an expert in the analysis of failed properties that ended up in the hands of bank REO divisions, the FDIC, and the RTC. Remember those guys? I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you, right here. 

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