The Federal Reserve added the word “symmetric” to its inflation goal for a reason. Back in May 2018 when it was made official officials made quite a big deal out of it. It was for two reasons, actually, both of them intertwined in the way Economists believe the economic system is supposed to work; and […]
What if bears were right all along? What if it’s not different this time? What if this Fed liquidity inspired rally produced precisely the kind of exuberant final thrust we often see at […]
For Fintwit the big news last night was not that the Senate voted not to call witnesses (I don’t think anybody was surprised by that) nor that markets had dropped hard following […]
Welcome to The First Major Pandemic Scare for –after a most freakishly protracted boom – a highly integrated world. Here’s what it could mean.
With the light supply and the Fed money putting the wind at their backs, Primary Dealers got a gift on top of that. Coronavirus. The panic that induced has driven money out of stocks and into bonds. Just what they needed.
I’ll discuss markets in more detail this weekend, but wanted to share something we’re watching. Obviously this week has been wild with steep rallies and also just as steep selloffs. On the […]
Dow 30,000 is “unsinkable,” just like the Titanic.A recent Barrons cover celebrating the euphoric inevitability of Dow 30,000 captured the mainstream zeitgeist perfectly: Corporate America is firing on all cylinders, the Federal Reserve’…
Monetary policy can be implemented through outright purchases or sales of securities, which permanently changes the size of the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio.
Jay Powell says that three’s not a crowd, at least not for his rate cuts, but four would be. As usual, central bankers like him always hedge and say that “should conditions warrant” the FOMC will be more than happy to indulge (the NYSE). But what he means in his heart of hearts is that […]
Headline GDP growth during the fourth quarter of 2019 was 2.05849% (continuously compounded annual rate), slightly lower than the (revised) 2.08169% during Q3. For the year, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) puts total real output at $19.07 trillion, or annual growth of 2.33% and down from 2.93% in 2018. Last year was weaker than […]