Manias are accidents in the making. And after an agonizing week, markets crave for emergency central bank stimulus – yet another rash morning shot of the “Hair of the Dog.”
With interest rates tumbling all over the world, gold should be killing it. Instead, gold is getting killed.
It’s really not hard to appreciate why markets are freaking out right now. The economic narrative is, and has been, all wrong. Jay Powell says that faraway overseas pressures had taken just a little off what had been awesome economic growth. Despite what had become an obvious drag on trade and manufacturing, the unemployment rate, […]
First rule of trading: Stay humble and don’t let a big call or trade get to your head. Second rule of trading: Don’t forget rule number one, otherwise the market will remind […]
Monetary policy can be implemented through outright purchases or sales of securities, which permanently changes the size of the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio.
The WTI futures curve is supposed to be in backwardation, though the word “supposed” is a loaded term. Backwardation is more of an ideal condition than one you might find most often in practice. There’s almost as much contango as backwardation in the futures market’s history. It’s not so easy to balance all the complexities […]
A few charts documenting the absolute carnage that markets are in […]
That’s the thing about these eurodollar cycles; they aren’t short. We’re conditioned on the belief that the business cycle is, or at least the recession piece. According to convention, the economy peaks and within a relatively short period of time it falls apart. The shock and its very immediate aftermath. The lengths of time involved […]
The economic storm hasn’t passed; the false calm is only the eye of the financial hurricane.To understand the economic cataclysm ahead, do the math. Those expecting the Covid-19 pandemic to leave the U.S. economy untouched are implicitly maki…
The market got way ahead of the amount of cash that the Fed was pumping into dealer accounts in February. That took a toll, and…