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There’s No Mystery 8/5/20

Nobody knows what the Fed will do over 5 months.  The Fed itself doesn’t know. Nor does the Treasury know how much it will need to borrow that far in advance. The TBAC is pretty good for the current quarter after they’ve had a look at the first 6 weeks, but their estimates for the next quarter are usually way off. Like most econ forecasters they suck at it. But there’s no mystery what the Fed will do…