While the American labor market continued to recover from the devastating effects of the spring wave of the coronavirus pandemic in October, last week’s jobs report revealed that it’s still a long climb back to where things were before the virus outbre…
While the world focused its attention on the U.S. presidential election last week, the coronavirus pandemic did not pause, with daily case tolls hitting new highs in the United States as well as in large parts of Europe and across the globe.According t…
Politics doesn’t matter. There are two rules.
A small one, but enough.
Short term cycles turned up on schedule, triggering the overdue upturn in the 6 month cycle. The 13 week cycle up phase got its expected second wind. All cycles from 4 weeks to 6 months are now in gear to the upside. The 4 week cycle currently projects to 3560. The 13 week cycle points higher–a lot higher.
BRIC Manufacturing indicator is now outperforming Global Manufacturing PMI in 8th consecutive quarters, and BRIC Services indicators is running above Global Services PMI for the first time after posting poorer performance in 3Q 2020.
U.S. is now in a full-blown third wave of the pandemic both in terms of daily case counts and deaths, and the EU27 is in a full-blown second wave:Summary statistics:Histograms for both:
The prospect of a divided Washington would seem to take some pressure off the vulnerable Treasury market – and, through lower Treasury yields, corporate Credit more generally. And I appreciate that divided government has in the past worked to the advantage of the bull market status quo. But are we to believe in today’s crisis backdrop an irreconcilably split and hostile Washington will somehow function to the benefit of the markets and our nation?
The primary reason for that first rate hike in a decade in December 2015 was ferbus figuring that full employment had probably been reached, certainly close to where the unemployment rate had fallen at that time. The Fed’s main econometric model calculated this key economic level at between 4.8% and 5.0% unemployment; the actual rate […]
So enjoy the GBOAT (greatest bubble of all time) but watch the clock.