Was yesterday destined to be a failed breakout? Only the Shadow knows. Stay tuned to the latest episode of Return to the Scene of the Crime on your local Capital Stoolcasting Company radio station. The rest of us will know soon.
My guess would be…
The ES 24 hour S&P futures looks ready to roll over as I write at 4:45 AM New York time. But being ready, and doing it are not one and the same. First, we need confirmation in the form of an hourly close below sport at 3889, accompanied by a downt…
The bloated body of Credit Suisse floated back to the surface this morning, throwing Europe into chaos. CS, by the way is a Primary Dealer, so this is a Fed problem too. I have pointed out through the years that only a minority, now 9 of the now 25 Fed…
If the bond rally were to continue, the problem of bank runs would be self mitigating. That’s because many of the assets that would need to be sold, could be sold at a profit. But the announcement of a Fed-Treasury-F-DIc bailout changes the equation. T…
It’s Monday the 13th. Good luck with that.
The Fed and Treasury announced a bank bailout on Sunday in the hopes of forestalling bank run contagion. But while it sounds big and new, it’s really just a few tweaks to the old tried and true discount…
After reviewing the withholding tax data for February last week, I decided that the jobs report should be faded. That left a lot to conjecture because there were no economists’ estimates posted yet. Now they are. The consensus expectation is for a head…
The market is apparently in the second day of a nominal 5 day (expressed as 4 day) cycle up phase. If it makes it through today without blasting off, bears should be in good shape for another death defying plunge. But a little rally this morning that m…
It’s an Ed Sullivan moment. A really big shoe.
Meanwhile, we’re home on the range again. The hourly cycle oscillators on the ES, 24 hour S&P futures say it’s a 5 day cycle low, 4 day variant edition. But the ES needs to…
As a result of the breakout from that 8 day base on the hourly chart, the ES, 24 hour S&P futures have a conventional measured move target of 4120-35. Right now they’re in a nominal 5 day cycle down phase. I’ll call it the pause the refreshes. Orig…
Good morning!
My air conditioning is being installed today. It’s the last project in my renovation. After this, cleanup, touchup, and I can finally just live in my home. That means no more excuses for late reports! 😁
As for today’s market, l…