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Was yesterday destined to be a failed breakout? Only the Shadow knows. Stay tuned to the latest episode of Return to the Scene of the Crime on your local Capital Stoolcasting Company radio station. The rest of us will know soon.
My guess would be that if they get back over 3945 on the ES 24 hour S&P futures then they can establish an uptrend. Bailout or Not, Stock Traders Are Should Give the Fed, Treasury, and FDIC the Finger March 13, 2023
Don’t Fight the Fed is the Rule Number One, but the problem is that it’s not clear what Fed policy is. The bank rescue has already flooded the system with cash, but it’s not by the usual Primary Dealer conduit, so its financial market effects won’t be the same as usual. And for now, they’ve limited the financing to a one year term. It’s not, at this point, seen as permanent money. It’s more of a bandaid.
So how do we not fight the Fed if we don’t know what the Fed is doing. I’ll address that in the Composite Liquidity Update to be posted soon at Liquidity Trader- Money Trends .
The Treasury market hasn’t decided yet if the bank run crisis will be self mitigating. If the 10 year yield drops below 3.40, it could be. The Fed is now providing unlimited funding for banks to buy Treasuries, but a certain level of public panic would be necessary to keep bond prices rising and yields falling. Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start SurfacingMarch 12, 2023
Gold has regained its safe have status, and then some. Gold Works On High Base March 14, 2023
BTC too. This massive base breakout measures to 34-35k.
With the Fed flooding the world with USD again, I would expect the EUR to hold at $1.06 and start higher. What I expect doesn’t matter. Because the ECB might do something equally stupid and destructive so as not to let the EUR appreciate too much. I don’t try to predict what clown central bankers will do. I just want to know how much money they are pumping into, or or rare occasions draining from, the world banking system.
For now, the market is waiting for a sign from Madame LaGarde. If the EUR/USD falls under 1.05, the target would be 1.00 again. But if it holds and moves up, first 1.10, then da moon?
For moron the markets, see:
- Gold Works On High Base March 14, 2023
- Swing Trade Screen Picks – Who Wants to Go Short Here! March 13, 2023
- Bailout or Not, Stock Traders Are Should Give the Fed, Treasury, and FDIC the Finger March 13, 2023
- Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing March 12, 2023
- February Withholding Taxes Say – Fade the Jobs Report! March 2, 2023
- Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023
- You Can Now Follow the Diabolical Usual Suspects February 16, 2023
If you’re serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
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