Equal Librium Market – 3/9/23

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6:37 AM ET The market is apparently in the second day of a nominal 5 day (expressed as 4 day) cycle up phase. If it makes it through today without blasting off, bears should be in good shape for another death defying plunge. But a little rally this morning that manages to clear the top of the range at 4001, would get the ball rolling for the bulls.

I like the bears’ chances here. The hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P futures shows that the up phase has been flat, and that trend resistance is descending, at around 3990 in the 7 AM hour in New Yawk. Stay below that this morning, and bears’ chances improve radically. And even if cleared, bulls would still have some work to do to make their case, particularly around 4000.

Meanwhile, if the low of 3969 gives way, a little bouncy bouncy in the lower 3960s looks like, then the SHTF.

Mixed Bag of Signals Screaming, “Walk This Way” March 5, 2023

Over at the hourly 10 year Treasury yield chart, bears made their case yesterday, but then stopped short, failing to push the yield above the range of 3.90 to 4.01. But bond bulls can’t break out the bubbly either. Stay tuned to this one. The direction of the breakout from the range will tell us all we need to know.

February Withholding Taxes Say – Fade the Jobs Report! March 2, 2023

But the all time king of frustration may be gold. After a nice looking base breakout on the hourly chart last week, it pulled all the way back to its low. But it has made another nice little scoop bottom. So, maybe finally?

First things first, it must clear 1829. Gold On Cusp of Brutal Outlook if This Happens March 8, 2023

 

For moron the markets, see:

• Gold On Cusp of Brutal Outlook if This Happens March 8, 2023
• Swing Trade Screen Picks – 3 Buys, No Shorts March 6, 2023
• Mixed Bag of Signals Screaming, “Walk This Way” March 5, 2023
• February Withholding Taxes Say – Fade the Jobs Report! March 2, 2023
• Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023
• You Can Now Follow the Diabolical Usual Suspects February 16, 2023

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