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The ES 24 hour S&P futures looks ready to roll over as I write at 4:45 AM New York time. But being ready, and doing it are not one and the same. First, we need confirmation in the form of an hourly close below sport at 3889, accompanied by a downturn in the hourly oscillators. The next requirement would be an hourly close below a sport line convergence at 3883. If that happens, then bears are talkin. Otherwise no go. And even if they break, a rebound from the 3840 area would leave us in this hellish limboscape.
Bulls have a similar challenge with multiple resistance lines around 3905-3910. Breaking those would give them a shot at completing a potentially very bullish pattern by clearing 3938. But likewise, no go if they fail to do that.
At this point, we don’t know and neither do they, in other words, nobody knows nuthin.
The 10 year Treasury yield chart setup holds the future of Western Civilization in its hand. Yes, it’s got the whole world, in it hands. It depends on whether it breaks the 3.40 level. RIght now it looks as though this could be the bottom, but if it breaks, yields could go much lower and bond prices much higher, fast. The banking crisis would thereby become self mitigating and the financial markets could get fast, fast, fast relief. But if 3.40 holds and yields start up again, that would mean something else. Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing March 12, 2023
Gold’s current safe haven status remains enhanced. The daily chart shows that the yellow stuff is set up for a breakout through trend resistance at 1940. That would be very bullish for GC. It not only would point to an intermediate high of 2300, that would complete the huge high base pattern with an even higher implied target. Gold Works On High Base March 14, 2023
Another theme is BTC as safe haven. That hangs in the balance as yesterday BTC had a false breakout. It now needs to clear 26,500 to complete that marvelous looking base pattern and tack on 10,000 bucks in a heartbeat. Otherwise, it could easily drop 20% in a heartbeat.
The threat of contagion of the banking crisis into Europe, where banks are holding a shitload of negative yielding paper and are likely to be in even worse shape than US banks, reversed a long term bullish pattern in the EUR/USD daily chart to something quite the opposite. EUR/USD had been working on a huge reverse head and shoulders over the past 5 months. Suddenly yesterday that morphed into a potential head and shoulders top over the past 2 months. 1.05 is the key sport level here. A break would have a conventional measured move target back to a buck for the euro.
For moron the markets, see:
- Gold Works On High Base March 14, 2023
- Swing Trade Screen Picks – Who Wants to Go Short Here! March 13, 2023
- Bailout or Not, Stock Traders Are Should Give the Fed, Treasury, and FDIC the Finger March 13, 2023
- Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing March 12, 2023
- February Withholding Taxes Say – Fade the Jobs Report! March 2, 2023
- Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023
- You Can Now Follow the Diabolical Usual Suspects February 16, 2023
If you’re serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
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