Rangebounds markets all sound and fury. Here’s where this is headed today.
The numbers continue to improve for the COVID19 epicenter in the Northeast. The following chart looks at the numbers on a week to week basis…
Last night the S&P futures needed to break 2828 to break the uptrend. Of course it did it by 5 points, and that was it. Boom! Up, up, and away!
The good news is that new cases and new deaths in the US declined week to week. The bad news is that the decline in case numbers was miniscule, and there were big regional differences. The Northeast, which was by far the worst hit region, is showing improvement. The South is getting worse.
Rumor has it that China will say bye bye to the trade deal. Futures were down when that “news” hit the Twitter. Now they’re up.
The trends for the nation as a whole looked good as of Sunday May, 10. 20,329 new cases were reported Sunday. That’s down from 27,348, the previous Sunday. 25,524 cases were reported Saturday, May 9, down from 29,744 the previous Saturday. But unfortunately, that’s not the whole story.
The BLS reported a seasonally adjusted 20.5 million jobs lost in April and stocks rallied on the news. Wall Street loves both death and unemployment apparently.
The BLS reported a seasonally adjusted 20.5 million jobs lost in April and stocks rallied on the news. Wall Street loves both death and unemployment apparently.
The more deaths, the more the market rallies. Yesterday’s US COVID 19 death toll was 2,528, the highest since April 21. The University of Washington model, which has been pretty accurate, now calls for 3,000 deaths a day in June as states reopen their economies.
Notice how the stock market correlates. Deaths have broken out. Will stocks follow?
A month ago the Fed was buying all new Treasury issuance and then some. Now it’s nowhere close to doing that. In recent days the Fed has been absorbing only around a fifth of new Treasury issuance. Is it enough?