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USA COVID19 Case and Death Count for May 12 – The South Rises Again

The good news is that new cases and new deaths in the US declined week to week. The bad news is that the decline in case numbers was miniscule, and there were big regional differences. The Northeast, which was by far the worst hit region, is showing improvement. The South is getting worse.

According to the COVID19 Tracking Project, the US registered 21,293 new cases yesterday, Tuesday, May 12. That compares with 21,899 cases on Tuesday, May 5. That decline of 606 cases amounted to a 2.8% decline.

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Deaths attributed to COVID19 totaled 1,522, a decline of 1,000 from the 2,522 deaths a week before on May 5. This was nearly a 40% decline in deaths.

The Northeast 

Looking at the worst hit Northeast, including New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts, 4,503 new cases were reported yesterday. That was a decline of 3,443 new cases, or 43%, from the previous Tuesday.

COVID19 New Cases May 12, Northeast USSource: https://datausa.io/coronavirus#cases

There were 544 deaths reported yesterday. That was a decline of 834, or 60.5% from Tuesday, last week.

COVID19 Cases and Deaths May 12, Northeast US
Data Source: The Covid Tracking Project

These states still have restrictions in place but gradual lifting of restrictions is due to begin in the weeks ahead.

The South 

The South was mostly a different story. A geographic swath covering North Carolina to Texas, excluding Louisiana and Arkansas, did not do well. Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee in particular, had flareups.

The number of daily cases in this grouping was 4,445 on Tuesday May 12 (Monday in Texas). That was an increase of 1,445, or 48% from the prior week. Deaths fell by 96 to 195, a decline of 33%. Deaths lag case numbers by 3-4 weeks.


Data Source: The Covid Tracking Project

These are states which began to aggressively relax stay-at-home restrictions in late April and early May.

I did not include Louisiana because it still has broad restrictions in place. I also excluded Arkansas. It was an outlier. It had a 242% week to week increase in cases on Tuesday. On Monday it had 287 new cases, a 1000% increase.

While the uptick in the South is worrisome, it’s too early to call this a new trend. The data over the next week should give us a better idea.

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Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also publish LiquidityTrader.com, and was lead analyst for Sure Money Investor, of blessed memory. I developed David Stockman's Contra Corner for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I was considered an expert in the analysis of failed properties that ended up in the hands of bank REO divisions, the FDIC, and the RTC. Remember those guys? I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you, right here. 

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