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Fed QE for May 6, 2020

The Fed bought $13 billion in Treasuries from Primary Dealers yesterday in its current version of Fed QE. It has now bought $17 billion of the $40 billion in Treasuries that it said it would buy this week. It has said that it will buy $6 billion today.

The Fed deposits the cash to pay for the purchases into the dealers’ accounts at the Fed the following day. That money is then available to the dealers to do as they wish. They can use all or none of it to purchase more Treasuries, or buy stocks, or whatever it is that they do with cash.

But in reality, they are the Fed’s middleman or strawman for monetizing the Federal debt.

This may sound bullish, but a month ago the Fed was buying all new Treasury issuance and then some. Now it’s nowhere close to doing that. In recent days the Fed has been absorbing only around a fifth of new Treasury issuance. Then it was 150% monetization. Now it’s 20%. Over the current 7 day period May 5-12, the Treasury has scheduled issuance of “just” $203 billion. The Fed will buy only $40 billion of that. 

The Fed is also buying roughly $6 billion per day in MBS from the dealers. However, that doesn’t count this week because they are forward contracts and the dealers won’t get the cash until May 13, May 18, and June 22. Just be aware of the huge windfall the dealers will get the week of May 13. I cover that at Liquidity Trader.

Is this version of Fed QE enough to keep the pot boiling? I’m not so sure. Last month the US Government issued nearly $1.4 trillion in new paper, and the Treasury said on Monday that in May and June it will plunk another $1.6 trillion on the market. We’ll know the distribution of that later today when the TBAC issues its updated estimate for the quarter. I’ll cover that at Liquidity Trader.

This Week Will Tell If The Bear is Really Coming Out of Hibernation

Last week’s selloff did less damage than it may have felt like. The drop stopped in the area of 3 crossing uptrend lines, ranging in length from short term to long term. Here’s what would tell us whether the uptrend is still in force, or signal that something evil this way comes. I have added 8 new stocks to the swing trade chart pick list, including 2 shorts.

So is the Fed doing enough to keep the short term bull trend going? Take a look at the daily technical setup.

Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also publish, and was lead analyst for Sure Money Investor, of blessed memory. I developed David Stockman's Contra Corner for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I was considered an expert in the analysis of failed properties that ended up in the hands of bank REO divisions, the FDIC, and the RTC. Remember those guys? I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you, right here. 

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