As noted earlier this week, the world’s two big hopes for the global economy in the second half are pinned on the US labor market continuing to exert its purported strength and Chinese authorities stimulating out of every possible (monetary) opening. Incoming data, however, continues to point to the fallacies embedded within each. The US […]
Inflation always brings out an emotional response. Far be it for me to defend Economists, but their concept is at least valid – if not always executed convincingly insofar as being measurable. An inflation index can be as meaningful as averaging the telephone numbers in a phone book (for anyone who remembers what those things […]
New York | This week we announce the publication of The IRA Bank Book for Q2 2019, a publication of The Institutional Risk Analyst. In this issue we ask some important questions, including:** Why is Capital One Financial (COF) a better comp for Citigroup (C) than JPMorganChase (JPM)? ** Why are loss rates for real estate exposures of US banks moving back into positive territory? ** Will funding costs for banks continue to rise even as long-term Treasury yields fall dramatically? ** And just when
In technical analysis one always searches for actionable patterns. The biggest mistake people make when applying TA is they see potential patterns and treat them like they’re valid. Now mind you there’s […]
Exhausted by the wild swings in markets? By tweets, daily newsflashes, central banks speeches, etc, all of which cause markets to move up and down on a dime leaving wide open gaps […]
Herds get spooked and run. That’s the crash scenario in a nutshell.We have all been trained by a decade of central bank saves to expect any stock market swoon will soon be reversed by central bank sweet talk and/or rate cuts. As a result of such e…
Unemployment at 50 year lows, S&P 500 near all time human history highs and rate cuts are all the rage. Markets were screaming rate cuts and the Fed dutifully complied, first Bullard, […]
Powell, Draghi, Kuroda and the like fully appreciate that a decade of ultra-loose monetary policies have fueled dangerous Bubbles. But they’ve thrown in the towel; a fight they are afraid to confront.
It’s never just one payroll report. The month-to-month changes in the Establishment Survey barely qualify as statistically significant, let alone meaningful. What that means is one good monthly headline is nothing to get excited about, just as one bad month shouldn’t get anyone too worked up. May 2019’s jobs report, however, isn’t in isolation. The […]
Recent research supports the idea that this under-the-radar migration is already under way.The decline of rural regions and small towns is a global phenomenon, and the causes are many but boil down to two primary dynamics:1. Cities and megalopolises (a…
