All asset “wealth” in credit-asset bubble dependent economies is contingent and ephemeral.A funny thing happens to “wealth” in a bubble economy: it only remains “wealth” if the owner sells at the top of the bubble and invests the proceeds in an as…
New York | Last week The Institutional Risk Analyst participated the Ginnie Mae Summit in Washington. The event was packed and featured some important discussions about the state of the residential mortgage market. We received applause from the audience for suggesting that FHA resolution costs for defaulted loans should be the same as the GSEs. But hold that thought. And there were lighter moments. Federal Housing Finance Administration head Mark Calabria continued to backpedal skillfully
Clever markets. Many index charts have camped themselves inside tight key price zones ahead of the Fed meeting this coming week leaving potential for important breakouts or equally important breakdowns. The trigger […]
Risk on/risk off speculative dynamics now exert an acutely destabilizing impact on financial conditions.
Whether or not a full-scale recession shows up in the US is an open question. There’s less of one in US industry. The “manufacturing recession” we last saw of Euro$ #3 is becoming clearer as a repeat property in Euro$ #4. According to the Federal Reserve, May was a relatively good month for industry – […]
Retail Sales rose just 3.46% year-over-year (unadjusted) in May 2019. The estimate for April was revised substantially higher, now suggesting growth of 5.6%. Altogether, however, consumer spending continues to be unusually weak. How unusual? The 6-month average, a better gauge of growth conditions given the noisy nature of the series, is now below 3% for […]
If you went panic chasing into stocks following Jay Powell’s ‘ready to act’ speech on June 4 on the expectation for imminent rate cuts you just got thrown a curveball: Economic data […]
If we look at these charts, it looks like only the top 10%, or perhaps the top 20% at best, might qualify as “middle class” by the metrics described below.The conventional definition of working class is based on income and education:the worki…
Once you realize negative yielding sovereign bonds aren’t investments, they are balance sheet tools for global banks, things start to fall into place. I had the honor to chat with the fellas at Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. In a world where stocks are the media kings it’s good every once in a while to talk […]
There are many market charts to track and most headlines are focused on the $DJIA, $SPX and $NDX, but there are other key index charts of interest, especially at this time. I […]
