The gold miner stock index has broken out and the metal looks poised to do the same. Here’s what to look for, including short term to long term price projections.
The market has now been rangebound for 5 weeks, leaving the cycle picture muddled. Wave amplitude remains relatively high, while frequency has increased. If the recent pattern holds, the market would top out on Thursday. But what if it doesn’t cooperate. Here’s what to look for to signal what comes next.
The numbers continue to improve for the COVID19 epicenter in the Northeast. The following chart looks at the numbers on a week to week basis…
Treasury issuance has caught up with QE. There are no more excess funds lying around for dealers to use to mark up stock and bond prices. The balance has shifted. It’s not as bullish as it was, that’s for sure. And it could get much, much worse in the weeks ahead before the Fed reacts.
In normal times, the Federal Government has a revenue windfall in April, and runs a large surplus for the month. Revenues are typically at least 140% of outlays. Even more in good years.
Revenues covered just 24% of outlays in April. We borrowed 76 cents of every dollar the Federal Government spent last month.
We knew this was coming. The questions now are how long it can last, when it will start to recover, and whether it might get worse.
Last night the S&P futures needed to break 2828 to break the uptrend. Of course it did it by 5 points, and that was it. Boom! Up, up, and away!
The good news is that new cases and new deaths in the US declined week to week. The bad news is that the decline in case numbers was miniscule, and there were big regional differences. The Northeast, which was by far the worst hit region, is showing improvement. The South is getting worse.
Rumor has it that China will say bye bye to the trade deal. Futures were down when that “news” hit the Twitter. Now they’re up.
Gold is consolidating. Here’s what to look for to signal that it’s something worse.
The trends for the nation as a whole looked good as of Sunday May, 10. 20,329 new cases were reported Sunday. That’s down from 27,348, the previous Sunday. 25,524 cases were reported Saturday, May 9, down from 29,744 the previous Saturday. But unfortunately, that’s not the whole story.