The only thing that has changed since my last monthly review of the macro liquidity data is that stocks have rallied. That has returned them to their most extended position versus liquidity since the January market peak.
Short term cycle up phases aborted.
The market is in a meltup channel. Here’s where it’s headed.
Monthly deficits have exploded since passage of the tax cut and Congressional Budget Busting Agreement. However, June was a tax collection month, padding the Treasury’s cash account. That allowed the Treasury to pay down a few T-bills in June. But there was still a big year to year increase in supply. Despite that, stocks and…
Gold’s short term cycles are headed up, but the long term picture isn’t as shiny. Here’s what to look for.
The market broke out of a downtrend channel early last week and the current channel now points sharply higher. But the irresistable force also meets the immovable object at a level just overhead. Here’s what to look for to signal either an extension of the rally or a reversal.
Federal tax revenue has cratered thanks mostly to the big reduction in corporate taxes, but withholding taxes have also been weak. Meanwhile, strength in excise taxes and non withheld individual income taxes suggest that the economy is booming in some sectors, enough to keep the Fed on its tightening course. But what you really need to…
Intermediate indications remain weak, but short term cycles are due for up phases in the metal and the miners. 3 mining stocks have bullish chart setups.
Intermediate indicators are turning bearish but one is telling a different story. Here’s what to look for.
By the end of the year the Fed will have withdrawn $450 billion from the banking system if it sticks to its published schedule. The annual bloodletting will then plateau at $600 billion per year until the balance sheet reaches a tight reserve position. We have seen the effects in the money markets and we’re…