There’s so much confusion out there about how money gets from the Fed into the stock and bond markets. I see the comments in my Twitter feed. People are clueless. Like how M1 is causal. Or how the Fed pumps money into the banking system and that doubles back somehow to speculative bubbles.
The Primary Dealers always hedge their fixed income portfolio positions in the futures markets. Looking only at their bond portfolio positions may not give us an accurate picture of how screwed they are, or are not.
Back in 2008-2009, I chronicled how the Primary Dealers caused the stock market crash. They were the most important and least recognized cause of what the media has labeled the Great Financial Crisis.
The dealers were overleveraged and positioned wrong then. They are overleveraged and positioned wrong today.
Support was attacked and held in both the metal and the miners. Here are 5 mining picks that look ready for a swing.
Mike Tyson famously said, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” OK, so the market didn’t quite punch us in the mouth last week, but it did lull me to sleep last weekend. No worries. This week, there were so many charts with buy signals, I’m going all YOLO.
Withholding tax collections have exploded upward over the past month through February 3. Other date confirm the strengthening. Here’s what this means for portfolio strategy and trading tactics.
Unfortunately, the technical picture has turned darker in the short run. The wallstreetbets crowd bullish raid on silver hasn’t meant much for the mining sector either.
There were lots of sell signals last week, but this isn’t the big one. Yet. We just need to be prepared for it.
In the mid month QE update, I concluded the intro summary with this warning:
1/16/21 At this point, it seems like we are on the edge of the precipice. The risks are enormous. At the very least, I don’t see the likelihood of significant upside for either stocks or bonds.
Likewise, this could very easily go south in a big way. The Fed would need to act. Would it be too late? Would the market even respond?
I’ve added one new mining pick to swing while we all wait for gold to start moving again.