Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also provide analysis and charts for David Stockman's Contra Corner which I developed for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs in the past 44 years, including a stint on Wall Street in both analytical and sales capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I worked as a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. My perspective is not of the Ivory Tower. It is from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches of the industries that I analyze and write about today.

This Month Could “Make or Break” The Gold Market

Right now, you’ve got a lot of extra cash on hand, and you may be wondering whether it’s time to buy some extra bullion.

I don’t blame you.

As you know, I don’t consider myself a gold bug, but I do track the metals weekly in my Wall Street Examiner Precious Metals Pro Trader. Those of you who are gold bugs (and I have deep respect for you) can use that information however you see fit.

The post This Month Could “Make or Break” The Gold Market appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.

Stay Short, Folks – Thursday’s Rally Was A Deliberate Magic Trick

OK. So maybe I was a bit too alarmist in my last post. It’s a bad habit, but just how patient should we be with this market before we get out?

The truth is, not very.

Bulls have made money in this market for 9 straight years. 9 years without a bear market! And now the Fed has loudly and specifically turned hostile to asset price inflation. It told us that it would pull the punchbowl. Then it told us that it is pulling the punchbowl. Then it started to pull the punchbowl. Now it is continuing to pull the punchbowl at an ever-increasing rate. And the US Treasury is exacerbating that by doubling the amount of supply it is bringing to market.

As I said on Wednesday — it just does not get any more bearish than that.

Let’s look at Thursday’s rally in context….and make some money, while we’re at it

The post Stay Short, Folks – Thursday’s Rally Was A Deliberate Magic Trick appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.

The Time for Patience Is Officially Over. Get Out.

I have been writing about the importance of the US Treasury market for stock investors since late last summer. As recently as just last week I told you that “Your Treasury-Fueled Windfall Ends Today.”  That morning, the S&P 500 opened at 2701, down over 7 points from the April 18 close. The SPX closed yesterday at 2622.  

I warned about the Treasury yield problem even before last week. On March 3, we headlined “Get Out of the Stock Market Before This Line Climbs Past 3%. I was talking about the yield on the 10 Year Treasury note.  That yield traded above 3% for about 10 minutes yesterday morning. It then pulled back a bit to around 2.98 at the end of the day. But that didn’t matter. The stock market rout was on. The SPX dropped 66 points from the time that the 10 year traded at 3.0 until about 2:40 PM.

What happened? Around 10 AM, the bond selling diminished and bond buyers showed up. At the same time, an early rally in stocks peaked. Stock prices began to fall. This illustrates another fact that I have been reporting about this market. With the pool of money (liquidity) that is available to buy stocks and bonds shrinking, one type of investment can only rally if another is selling off. Bonds can only rally if stocks are liquidated.

That’s exactly what happened yesterday. There is not enough liquidity to support rallies in both markets. The problem is getting worse and it will continue to get worse. 

That means that it’s now time to get out of the markets. The time for patient systematic selling has come to an end.

No more waiting, no more hedging bets or hanging around or gradual, slow withdrawal.

Take your marbles right now, and get out.

The post The Time for Patience Is Officially Over. Get Out. appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.

Here’s Why This Market Could Get Ugly Fast

The US Treasury’s tax windfall  has come and gone. The Treasury is resuming net borrowing early than usual this year, in April instead of mid May as usual. That’s problematic in view of the weak cyclicality. As I wrote last week, “The usual April-May seasonal pop should fizzle early.”  Here’s what to look for.

Your Treasury-Fueled Windfall Ends Today – Here’s What to Do

There’s something very unique – and a bit sinister – about today, April 19.

Would you like to know what is fueling this stock market rally?

Since March 29, the Treasury has poured $114 billion of its cash hoard back into the market by paying down debt.

That windfall ends today… Thursday, April 19. From then on, Treasury supply will just keep building.

This is as good as it will be for stocks right now. And that means you have some actions to take before the end of the month

The post Your Treasury-Fueled Windfall Ends Today – Here’s What to Do appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.