Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also provide analysis and charts for David Stockman's Contra Corner which I developed for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs in the past 44 years, including a stint on Wall Street in both analytical and sales capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I worked as a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. My perspective is not of the Ivory Tower. It is from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches of the industries that I analyze and write about today.

Worst Liquidity Conditions Since 2008 Coming to a Market Near You

The Treasury issued $152 billion of net new supply in November. Surprisingly that did not cause a drop in stock and bond prices. Instead, dealers and speculators increased their short term borrowing that normally finances bond purchases, and instead shifted the cash to stocks. This is borrowing from the future for speculative profit today. These…

The U.S. Is Entering A Recession Right Now. Here’s Why.

If this post didn’t make you think I was crazy – or this one – today’s likely will.

Despite the new highs and the great growth and yada yada yada ….we are on the brink of a recession. I have the numbers to prove it.

And the numbers don’t lie.

Data on Federal tax collections comes to us in real time every day, courtesy of the US Treasury. This is unmassaged real data, not the endlessly finagled economic data put out by various other US government agencies. Tracking the tax data regularly enables us to see how the US economy is actually behaving, versus how the government wants you to think it’s behaving.

That’s important because the current data tells us something really big about the US economy that nobody knows yet. It won’t show up in the official GDP data for months, but it could rock the markets and cause the Fed to change course.

Here’s the big news.

The post The U.S. Is Entering A Recession Right Now. Here’s Why. appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.

Let Me Take You Behind The Scenes in My “SPX Prediction Machine”…

In a recent post, the headline said “My S&P Target is 2800.” You are probably wondering how I got there. Well, I didn’t quite get to 2800, but round numbers are nice, and I got close enough that there’s a reasonable rationale for expecting the S&P to get there. The actual technical target range was a little lower.

Here’s how I got there…and why you should be prepared for the S&P to get to 2800 and know what to do when it does.

The post Let Me Take You Behind The Scenes in My “SPX Prediction Machine”… appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.

Daily Trades List for December 6, 2017

I have added 4 shorts and no longs to the list today. The selection algo generated 2 longs and 26 shorts yesterday, ending the long side bias. Here is today’s updated list including new buys, sells, short sales, cover shorts, and updated stops, as well as performance metrics for this month. Market Update Pro subscribers click…