Lee Adler

Jobs Data Shows No Gains From QE/ZIRP, But Allows Fed Withdrawal

Nonfarm Payrolls vs. Quantitative Easing- Click to enlarge

The seasonally finagled headline number for nonfarm payrolls for July increased 209,000. The consensus expectation of Wall Street conomists was for a gain of 220,000. The Wall Street media judged it a “miss.” But the number is the number. The Wall Street economist crowd’s guess was only a little off, considering the total numbers involved. The market plays this…

Huge Decline Was Ugly But Not Pivotal

I will admit to some surprise at the ferocity of the decline today, but we were aware of the likelihood of weakness, both from the standpoint of cycle analysis and screening data, as well as the end of July liquidity shortage. This report explains the implications of this drop.

Few Bears Around To Enjoy Party

The market threw a party for bears today. It seemed as though there were few of them around to enjoy it suggesting that this decline has farther to go. They usually don’t end until the cheering from the sidelines gets really loud. But today at least, price levels that were supposed to be support, weren’t.…

Are Wages Really Rising or Has Wall Street Knee Jerk Media Missed The Story Again?

Employment Costs By Sector- Click to enlarge

The Wall Street-Washington, self congratulatory media echo chamber press release repeaters got all excited this morning about a bump in the seasonally adjusted headline number for the BLS employment cost index. That number rose by 0.7% on a quarter to quarter basis. The Wall Street economist crowd’s consensus guess was for an increase of 0.4%. Seasonally…

Beware! Jobless Claims Fall By 30,000, Continuing 10 Month String of Record Lows

Initial Claims Per Million Workers- Click to enlarge

With yesterday’s 4% GDP print it’s becoming clear that the observation I had reported for several months that the US economy is overheated in key areas is starting to creep into mainstream consciousness. When you pay attention to actual data, it’s easy to see the facts of what is happening on the ground well before mainstream economists and the…