Lee Adler

Still No Recession Signal In Initial Claims Advance Decline Line (Breadth Index)

Capture

I look at an analysis of individual state claims as a kind of advance decline line for confirmation of the trend in the total numbers. The states report the data to the Department of Labor, which accumulates the data into its weekly national report. It’s also interesting to see how the big oil states are…

Initial Claims Show Employers Are Still Asleep So Payrolls Should Beat Consensus

Initial Claims and Stock Prices

The stock market broke, but initial claims are still at record levels. This is how it has historically works as bubbles start to deflate. Employers are the last to get the news. But the very fact of their record long term ebullience was warning enough, as I have repeatedly chronicled here over the past year.…

What You Must Know About Fed Minutes And Emanations From Jackson’s Hole

Composite Liquidity Indicator

This post is an excerpt from the Pro Trader and Monthly Investor MacroLiquidity report. Subscriber links are below the text. The FOMC meeting minutes are a key instrument of official Fed propaganda. They show how the Fed wants you to view policy. There’s some useful information there, but it’s not what the Fed says it…