We already knew from our look at the end of month Daily Treasury Statement that October withholding taxes were bad news for the US economy. Now the monthly data on excise taxes from the Monthly Treasury Statement for October, released this week, has more bad news.
I am writing to you today from the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, a few hundred miles off the coast of Newfoundland. I’m heading for London for a week, and ultimately to Nice, France, where I’m looking forward to spending the winter. It’s a beautiful, lively small city on the shore of the Mediterranean Sea. I’m thinking of making my home there. This trip is for exploratory purposes.
As the ship rocked gently through the waves, as often happens in the wee hours of the morning, I awoke thinking about the market. Yes, I know. That’s not normal! I was wondering how the rest of the world viewed the selloff in the US markets on Monday. So I signed into the ship’s WIFI and checked my phone. The CNBC newswire read something like this:
FUTURES RALLY ON EASED TRADE FEARS.
The report predicted a strong open for US stocks.
I smirked and went back to sleep. The overnight markets are like Vegas. What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas. So goes the pre-market futures trading much of the time.
I checked in again when I woke up for the day and it was the same story. Big rally expected.
Then I went downstairs to the Brittania dining room and enjoyed a nice breakfast. The food and service was delightful as always. I highly recommend a Transatlantic crossing on the Queen Mary 2 for traveling to Europe if you have the time.
I don’t have the time for pure leisure purposes. But I can bring my work along for the ride and I can still communicate regularly with our great publication team, and most importantly, with you. It’s really a lot of fun!
Later, this morning, sometime after 10 AM I again logged into the ship’s satellite WIFI and checked the market. Lo and behold, up…
The post Your Role in The Wall Street Media Business Is Not What You Think appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.
For gold’s outlook to remain bullish, there’s a level that it must not violate. There are still two long picks in the mining stocks, but they have stops that you should honor if they’re broken.
The apparent 6 month cycle upturn remains intact, but here’s why bears can still be expectant and bulls need to protect their assets.
You probably think that banking data is boring stuff. And it is, mostly. Except for one thing.
Hidden in that data are secrets about the amount of money available to drive stock and bond prices.
If you know where to look, that information can be extremely useful to you for making money in the stock and bond markets. Even more importantly today, it can help you to keep what you’ve made. I’ve been tracking this data for my readers for years. I know where to look, and I give that critical information to you in these pages whenever it’s relevant.
For instance, every week, the Fed issues a report on the total balance sheet of the US commercial banking system. It comes out just 9 days after the date covered by the statement. Not only does that make it timely, it’s chock full of useful information hidden among the hundreds of line items.
I ferret out those hidden gems for you.
These gems don’t give us exact market timing, but they do help show us the context for the current market trends, and whether they’re likely to continue or not.
The post The Outlook Is Bearish, But You Can Profit From The Big Swings Both Ways appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.
Housing is an issue for all of us – as investors, and as ordinary people in need of a roof over our heads.
As investors, there’s always lots of housing news toward the end of the month.
The NAR releases its “pending” and “existing” home sales reports, which include sales volume and prices. The Commerce Department releases its New Home Sales report.
I like to keep you updated on those reports here.
The news in late October wasn’t good. I have been warning about this for months.
Homebuilding stocks have tanked since I suggested in early October that they were ripe to be shorted. It was an opportunity for big profits.
So should we harvest those profits now?
The post Homebuilding Stocks Continue to Plummet. Here’s How to Short Them appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.
Gold is in a consolidation. Here’s what will signal the next leg up.
Cycle screening measures improved enough last week to hint at an intermediate upturn. We were looking for that so, it all looks good.
Withholding tax collections fell in October. The weakening trend since the tax cut resumed after a brief respite in September. That has all kinds of implications. Here’s what they are, and what they mean to the markets and your investments.
Demand for Treasuries at the weekly Treasury auctions has risen by slightly more than the increase in new issuance lately.
With more buying, which should boost price and push the yield down, why have Treasury yields been rising? Because selling in the secondary market has outstripped demand!
Securities prices, just like the prices of the everyday goods that we purchase in daily life, are driven by supply and demand. Money is the fuel of demand. Treasury debt is supply. In today’s markets, there’s more supply than there is demand.
In the big picture that I have been painting for you over the past year, the growth of money (what professional investors call “liquidity”) is waning and soon to turn negative, thanks to the Fed and its foreign central bank cohorts.
This is bad news not just for the Treasury market and bond market in general, but for stocks too. The bad news that we have been expecting is starting to happen.
But this bad news wouldn’t be apparent if it were not for the involvement of the Primary Dealers, the legion of big banks that the Fed works with.
That’s why today, I want to take a deep dive into how the involvement of the Primary Dealers is influencing this market downturn.
The post Stocks and Bonds Are Finally Plummeting. Here’s How the Big Banks Are Pulling Some Strings appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.