Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also provide analysis and charts for David Stockman's Contra Corner which I developed for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs in the past 44 years, including a stint on Wall Street in both analytical and sales capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I worked as a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. My perspective is not of the Ivory Tower. It is from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches of the industries that I analyze and write about today.

Daily Trades for November 24, 2017

Daily trades list update for November 24, 2017. New buys, sells, short sales, cover shorts, and updated stops. Market Update Pro subscribers click here to download the report. The daily trades list update is an addendum to the weekly market update published every weekend. Click here for the latest Market Update. Not yet a subscriber? Try…

Reader Steve Poses a Holiday Weekend Short-Selling Puzzler

I got a great comment this week from reader Steve, on my post about why the appointment of new Fed Chair Jay Powell just doesn’t matter. Steve wrote:

Lee your commentary is always intended to be fact based and well informed. Thanks. It does appear at the moment that your shorting call based upon liquidity is too early. You originally discussed having a small short position and we have had the short-term LAMP red for weeks. Further, your commentary discussed huge financing requirements for the US Treasury based upon TBA advice. And – diminishing foreign demand for US treasuries. Therefore, where is commensurate the liquidity crunch and the pull back in stock prices.? So far, just seeing record high after record high. For now, it appears that the liquidity crunch is non-existent and at best temporary – if the markets significantly retrench, the Fed will again go back to Q/E. Look at the BoJ – they have expanded their bank balance sheet to 70% of GDP. The US can do the same. Grateful for your view. Thanks.

The post Reader Steve Poses a Holiday Weekend Short-Selling Puzzler appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.

Daily Trades List For November 22, 2017

The selection algo generated 36 longs and 9 shorts today. Some of the longs looked pretty compelling. I added 5 of them to the list. There are no new shorts. Trades closed this month have yielded an average profit of just 2% with an average holding time of 15 calendar days. The SPX is up…

The Juicy Little Secret “Sin Taxes” Tell You

As I’ve told you many times, the news is either misleading, or just irrelevant. What’s relevant is Rule Number One, “Don’t fight the Fed, and Rule Number 2, “The trend is your friend” aka “Don’t fight the tape.” So I concentrate my work in attempting to get a handle on the market strictly on liquidity analysis and technical analysis. (See my LAMPP update at the bottom of this article).

But it’s still really important to understand as much as possible, exactly what the US economy is doing. We need to know that because we need to be able to cut through all the Wall Street noise and sales hype to get to the truth about the direction of the economic data. That data does not directly drive the market trend, but it does correlate. It’s helpful to know when that correlation is based on a false narrative. That can help us with our timing on betting with the trend or seeing patterns of market behavior develop that indicate the trend change is underway.

The problem is that the economic data, and the reporting of it by outlets like the Wall Journal and CNBC, is often confusing. It is often based on the extrapolation of tiny survey samples. The data is heavily statistically massaged, particularly with the use of seasonal adjustment, which is an indefensible obfuscation of what actually transpired in a given month. Sometimes it approximates the real trend, and sometimes it doesn’t. Furthermore, the data is always reported with a lag, sometimes a few weeks and sometimes a couple of months. Things can change during those weeks and months.

The incomplete and misleading nature of the data and the way it’s reported often leads you and other investors, both individual and institutional, to bad investment decisions.

The post The Juicy Little Secret “Sin Taxes” Tell You appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.

Daily Trades List for November 21, 2017

The selection algo generated 15 longs and 10 shorts today. The selection algo generated 15 longs and 10 shorts today. But I added no longs and 4 shorts to the list. The longs just didn’t look “right.” Trades closed this month have yielded an average profit of just 2.2% with an average holding time of…

Follow The Bouncing Ball

The market sold off, then bounced last week. But by dipping on Friday it created a potential downtrend channel. But cycle projections still point higher. Here’s what we need to follow for the signal for the next big move. Market Update Pro subscribers click here to download the report. Not yet a subscriber? Try the Market…

Daily Trades List for November 20, 2017

Daily trades list update for November 20, 2017. New buys, sells, short sales, cover shorts, and updated stops. Market Update Pro subscribers click here to download the report. The Weekly Market Update will be posted later this morning. Not yet a subscriber? Try the Market Update Pro including Daily Trades risk free for 90 days. If,…

Daily Trades for November 17, 2017

The selection algo generated 46 longs and 4 shorts on Wednesday. That’s an impressive imbalance. I’m skeptical but it is what it is. There were some nice looking bullish charts. I have added 6 picks on the long side for today. There are no new shorts. Current performance metrics on open trades and trades closed…