Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also provide analysis and charts for David Stockman's Contra Corner which I developed for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs in the past 44 years, including a stint on Wall Street in both analytical and sales capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I worked as a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. My perspective is not of the Ivory Tower. It is from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches of the industries that I analyze and write about today.

Your Role in The Wall Street Media Business Is Not What You Think

I am writing to you today from the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, a few hundred miles off the coast of Newfoundland. I’m heading for London for a week, and ultimately to Nice, France, where I’m looking forward to spending the winter. It’s a beautiful, lively small city on the shore of the Mediterranean Sea. I’m thinking of making my home there. This trip is for exploratory purposes.

As the ship rocked gently through the waves, as often happens in the wee hours of the morning, I awoke thinking about the market. Yes, I know. That’s not normal! I was wondering how the rest of the world viewed the selloff in the US markets on Monday. So I signed into the ship’s WIFI and checked my phone. The CNBC newswire read something like this:

FUTURES RALLY ON EASED TRADE FEARS. 

The report predicted a strong open for US stocks.

I smirked and went back to sleep. The overnight markets are like Vegas. What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas. So goes the pre-market futures trading much of the time.  

I checked in again when I woke up for the day and it was the same story. Big rally expected.  

Then I went downstairs to the Brittania dining room and enjoyed a nice breakfast. The food and service was delightful as always.  I highly recommend a Transatlantic crossing on the Queen Mary 2 for traveling to Europe if you have the time. 

I don’t have the time for pure leisure purposes. But I can bring my work along for the ride and I can still communicate regularly with our great publication team, and most importantly, with you.  It’s really a lot of fun!

Later, this morning, sometime after 10 AM I again logged into the ship’s satellite WIFI and checked the market. Lo and behold, up…

Oh wait

The post Your Role in The Wall Street Media Business Is Not What You Think appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.

The Outlook Is Bearish, But You Can Profit From The Big Swings Both Ways

You probably think that banking data is boring stuff. And it is, mostly. Except for one thing.

Hidden in that data are secrets about the amount of money available to drive stock and bond prices.

If you know where to look, that information can be extremely useful to you for making money in the stock and bond markets. Even more importantly today, it can help you to keep what you’ve made. I’ve been tracking this data for my readers for years. I know where to look, and I give that critical information to you in these pages whenever it’s relevant.

For instance, every week, the Fed issues a report on the total balance sheet of the US commercial banking system. It comes out just 9 days after the date covered by the statement. Not only does that make it timely, it’s chock full of useful information hidden among the hundreds of line items.

I ferret out those hidden gems for you.   

These gems don’t give us exact market timing, but they do help show us the context for the current market trends, and whether they’re likely to continue or not.

Click here to find out what a few of those gems are telling us now about how to mine profits and protect what you have already mined.

The post The Outlook Is Bearish, But You Can Profit From The Big Swings Both Ways appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.

Homebuilding Stocks Continue to Plummet. Here’s How to Short Them

Housing is an issue for all of us – as investors, and as ordinary people in need of a roof over our heads.

As investors, there’s always lots of housing news toward the end of the month.

The NAR releases its “pending” and “existing” home sales reports, which include sales volume and prices.  The Commerce Department releases its New Home Sales report.

I like to keep you updated on those reports here.  

The news in late October wasn’t good. I have been warning about this for months.

Homebuilding stocks have tanked since I suggested in early October that they were ripe to be shorted. It was an opportunity for big profits.

So should we harvest those profits now?

Here’s what you need to know from the latest housing data

The post Homebuilding Stocks Continue to Plummet. Here’s How to Short Them appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.

Stocks and Bonds Are Finally Plummeting. Here’s How the Big Banks Are Pulling Some Strings

Demand for Treasuries at the weekly Treasury auctions has risen by slightly more than the increase in new issuance lately.

With more buying, which should boost price and push the yield down, why have Treasury yields been rising? Because selling in the secondary market has outstripped demand! 

Securities prices, just like the prices of the everyday goods that we purchase in daily life, are driven by supply and demand. Money is the fuel of demand. Treasury debt is supply. In today’s markets, there’s more supply than there is demand.

In the big picture that I have been painting for you over the past year, the growth of money (what professional investors call “liquidity”) is waning and soon to turn negative, thanks to the Fed and its foreign central bank cohorts.

This is bad news not just for the Treasury market and bond market in general, but for stocks too. The bad news that we have been expecting is starting to happen.

But this bad news wouldn’t be apparent if it were not for the involvement of the Primary Dealers, the legion of big banks that the Fed works with.

That’s why today, I want to take a deep dive into how the involvement of the Primary Dealers is influencing this market downturn.

Click here to see

The post Stocks and Bonds Are Finally Plummeting. Here’s How the Big Banks Are Pulling Some Strings appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.