Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also provide analysis and charts for David Stockman's Contra Corner which I developed for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs in the past 44 years, including a stint on Wall Street in both analytical and sales capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I worked as a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. My perspective is not of the Ivory Tower. It is from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches of the industries that I analyze and write about today.

Your Treasury-Fueled Windfall Ends Today – Here’s What to Do

There’s something very unique – and a bit sinister – about today, April 19.

Would you like to know what is fueling this stock market rally?

Since March 29, the Treasury has poured $114 billion of its cash hoard back into the market by paying down debt.

That windfall ends today… Thursday, April 19. From then on, Treasury supply will just keep building.

This is as good as it will be for stocks right now. And that means you have some actions to take before the end of the month

The post Your Treasury-Fueled Windfall Ends Today – Here’s What to Do appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.

Here’s Your Guide to The Bear Market – Whether You Like It Or Not

Ever since I opined that the February downturn was actually the beginning of “the Big One,” or the next bear market, you’ve been firing back with opinions of your own.

Some of them have been right, some have been wrong in my opinion, but I’ve enjoyed reading all of them.

I promised you last weekend that I’d have another Q&A issue for you soon. So without further ado, here are some of the most provocative bear-focused comments I’ve gotten lately – and my sometimes snarky answers.

The post Here’s Your Guide to The Bear Market – Whether You Like It Or Not appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.

US Treasury Spent $114 Billion in the Last Two Weeks To Boost Stocks, But Watch Out Now!

The CBO (Congressional Budget Office) confirmed it in a report issued April 9. It projects massive and growing deficits for the next 8 years. That’s stimulative for the economy but bad news for the stock market, which  the Treasury just goosed to the  tune of $114 billion. Here’s the story, and why it’s ultimately bearish.

This Masterful Commenter Will Make Your Weekend Much Better

I’ve been getting some great and thoughtful comments on Sure Money and Money Morning lately – and I plan to address a whole slew of them next week.

But Bryan’s was so uniquely well-thought-out and provided such great fodder for discussion that I’ve decided to devote an entire weekend issue to it point by point.

Of course, I didn’t agree with all of it! But that’s the fun of it!

Bryan, thank you for showing us that intelligent market dialogue is not dead. You, sir, are a class act.

The post This Masterful Commenter Will Make Your Weekend Much Better appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.

This Uncanny Tool Has Been Right Since 1970 – Here’s What It’s Telling You to Sell Now

Yesterday, I sent you a few excerpts from my weekly Market Update that goes out to Wall Street Examiner Pro Trader subscribers. Unfortunately, I forgot to include the most important chart.

It’s one that I’ve been using for decades… and it’s my go-to for keeping me on the right side of the major trend, and identifying when that trend is changing. It may be the most important chart I construct for just that reason.

For instance, here’s how it performed while calling the recent upleg from the big break in February 2016. Back then many analysts had turned bearish. I had been bearish since before the August 2015 break.

But the indicators on this chart began to tell a different story soon after that February 2016 break. I noted on April 16, 2016 that, “The market signaled a new 2, 3, and 4 year cycle up phase by closing the week above the downtrend channel from last May.” The S&P 500 was then at 2080.


I reiterated that the indicators were still bullish on August 6, 2016. “3-4 year cycle indicators have edged through the long term downtrend lines. This suggests that this cycle is early in an up phase.”

Then on February 26, 2017 I suggested that the market would continue higher until at least 2018. “3-4 year cycle momentum has broken out from an apparent base pattern dating from Q3 2015. The next momentum peak is ideally due at the end of 2017, but prices usually climb for months after momentum peaks. The 3-4 year cycle price high is ideally due no sooner than 2018 and as late as 2019. These patterns suggest that the market is going much higher.”

And indeed it did.

But now, the indicators are changing and the market has told us that the party is over.

Here’s my explanation of what this chart now means for you and your money.

The post This Uncanny Tool Has Been Right Since 1970 – Here’s What It’s Telling You to Sell Now appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.

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