Lee Adler

Fed Is Not Just Behind The Curve, It’s Driving The Bus Over The Cliff

Actual Rent Versus Owner's Equivalent Rent- Click to enlarge

So the Fed didn’t raise rates again. And the timing of the rate increase will be data dependent. Ho hum. There’s just one little problem. The inflation measures the Fed watches really don’t measure inflation. The Fed won’t see what its cronies in the government and economic establishment refuse to measure, which is that we’ve already long since passed…

Will A Bear Market By Proxy Roll Out of China?

Macro Liquidity

The Composite Liquidity Indicator has been flat in recent weeks as it skirts the high set in January. Stock prices have mimicked that rangebound pattern with a temporary blip to the downside interjected last week.  The index is moving toward its 39 week moving average. The Fed has committed to “normalize” its balance sheet. While…

The Invisible Hand Of The Market

One day after a Dow Theory bear market confirmation and one day after breaking the long term trendline from the 2011 and 2014 lows, and after bears had gotten heavily short,  the “invisible hand” of the market once again leads them to slaughter. Their short covering only added to the panic on the upside.  The…

Case Shiller Is Too Slow- Here’s The Real (e)State of The US Housing Market Right Now

MLS Contract Prices- 55 Metros

The mainstream media reported the Case Shiller Index for “May.” I put that in quotes because the data does not represent the actual state of the market in May. Case Shiller represents the 3 month average price of repeat sales (not all sales, just houses that had sold previously) which were recorded by county agencies…

Gold Seeks Its Footing

Some short term indicators have edged to the buy side. The upper end of the projection range for the overdue 4 month cycle low has been hit and gold is holding around an old trendline extension representing support, with lows way overdue on 13 week and 4 month cycles. Does that suggest a major trend…