The 10-12 month cycle began its “second wind rally” last week. 10-12 month cycle momentum has thrust to a new high. Our last SPY option…
Unemployment at 50 year lows, S&P 500 near all time human history highs and rate cuts are all the rage. Markets were screaming rate cuts and the Fed dutifully complied, first Bullard, […]
Powell, Draghi, Kuroda and the like fully appreciate that a decade of ultra-loose monetary policies have fueled dangerous Bubbles. But they’ve thrown in the towel; a fight they are afraid to confront.
In today’s BLS jobs report, Nonfarm Payrolls came out at a gain of just 75,000. That’s on a seasonally adjusted month to month basis. The…
It’s never just one payroll report. The month-to-month changes in the Establishment Survey barely qualify as statistically significant, let alone meaningful. What that means is one good monthly headline is nothing to get excited about, just as one bad month shouldn’t get anyone too worked up. May 2019’s jobs report, however, isn’t in isolation. The […]
Recent research supports the idea that this under-the-radar migration is already under way.The decline of rural regions and small towns is a global phenomenon, and the causes are many but boil down to two primary dynamics:1. Cities and megalopolises (a…
Game over. The grand central bank experiment of the last 10 years has ended in utter and complete failure. The games of cheap money and constant intervention that have brought you record […]
Early last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the unemployment rate in the United States had fallen to just 3.6%. It was the lowest in half a century, seemingly an amazing feat for the most puzzling boom ever conceived. Everyone says it is going gangbusters, but is everyone saying so simply because […]
In case you missed it, the rate cuts have already started. They actually began last year among the major economies in India. If we are counting only DM countries, then Australia and New Zealand are first out of the gate; the latter smaller country beating the larger former by around a month. In a way, […]
Where have you gone, green shoots? The Fed turned dovish, a bunch of transitory factors, and, above all, so much Chinese stimulus. That’s what got everyone through the winter. Markets were truly harsh to end 2018, a sharp slap in the face after all year the unemployment rate. One of the big ones that seemed […]