The 10-12 month cycle “second wind” rally continues. It could run until the originally projected time window of late July through late September. The cycle…
Is the market’s 100% probability for a July rate cut justifiable in the event of market exuberance in response to improved prospects for a successful completion of trade negotiations?
Here is the moral decay of America’s ruling elites boiled down to a single word.There are many reasons why Imperial Rome declined, but two primary causes that get relatively little attention are moral decay and soaring wealth inequality. The two a…
The way I look at the global economy, there are basically five different zones. The first is the US and the second is Europe. China might be third on this list but often second if not first in terms of what’s driving marginal changes. In behind those is Japan, not what it once was but […]
With the Democratic Party staging the first of its national debates, The New York Times found time to embed a reporter amongst a group of Trump voters in the swing state of Michigan. Situated to watch the show, and given how the election of 2016 turned out, the Rust Belt is on the minds of […]
According to the BLS, inflation in the category of “New Vehicles” has been practically non-existent the past 21 years.Longtime readers know I’ve long turned a skeptical gaze at official calculations of inflation, offering real-world analyses such as&nb…
Primary Dealers continue to hold historically massive net long fixed income positions. They have purchased those positions using debt, resulting in huge increases in leverage.…
Will bitcoin appear on this chart of global reserve currencies in the future?Could a non-state cryptocurrency like bitcoin become a global reserve currency? I first proposed the idea back in November 2013, long before bitcoin’s rise to $19,000, de…
Markets are faced with another gap event, the G20 meeting this weekend, specifically any outcome from the renewed Xi/Trump trade talks on Saturday. To be, or not? Will they, won’t they? Progress, […]
In 2005, Ben Bernanke kicked up quite a bit of controversy, or what qualifies as drama in the dry space of top-level Economics. It was Alan Greenspan who really started the conversation, practically begging for someone to offer an answer. Long-term interest rates were not behaving the way they were supposed to; the maestro’s true […]