The WTI futures curve is supposed to be in backwardation, though the word “supposed” is a loaded term. Backwardation is more of an ideal condition than one you might find most often in practice. There’s almost as much contango as backwardation in the futures market’s history. It’s not so easy to balance all the complexities […]
A few charts documenting the absolute carnage that markets are in […]
That’s the thing about these eurodollar cycles; they aren’t short. We’re conditioned on the belief that the business cycle is, or at least the recession piece. According to convention, the economy peaks and within a relatively short period of time it falls apart. The shock and its very immediate aftermath. The lengths of time involved […]
The economic storm hasn’t passed; the false calm is only the eye of the financial hurricane.To understand the economic cataclysm ahead, do the math. Those expecting the Covid-19 pandemic to leave the U.S. economy untouched are implicitly maki…
The market got way ahead of the amount of cash that the Fed was pumping into dealer accounts in February. That took a toll, and…
Is this correction the beginning of something larger to come?
Monetary policy can be implemented through outright purchases or sales of securities, which permanently changes the size of the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio.
We knew that Not QE would fall well shy of Treasury issuance in February, and that that would be a problem for the markets. Subscribers,…
All things being equal…this rally has been terrible.
As empty streets and shelves attest, people taking charge of risk has dire economic consequences.How many cases of Covid-19 in your community will it take for you to decide not to frequent public places such as cafes, restaurants, theate…