I’ve marveled at the ability of the players to keep stock prices rising despite the reduction of Fed QE, and the continued pounding of Treasury supply on the market. Even more amazing is the fact that the rally in stocks has NOT come at the expense of the Treasury market. The Treasury market has managed not to blow up.
The chart pattern may look like a top but cycle projections suggest something big is in store. Subscribers, click here to download report. Try Lee…
Bullish indications mean that we must assume that the bulls remain in control until proven otherwise, regardless of the bearish liquidity forces (See latest Liquidity Trader report) over the next three weeks. A bull move in stocks would raise the specter of a selloff in the bond market to support a stock rally, because there won’t be enough cash around to support rallies in both. But that’s not our problem. We just need to be on the right side of the move, whatever it is.
We may still find out just how bad things are. Because the dealers remain leveraged to the hilt. And there’s one more thing.
We knew this was coming. $265 billion in MBS settlements for May are almost done. Now we reap the whirlwind. Here’s what to expect and why it’s time to GTFO.
The gold miner stock index has broken out and the metal looks poised to do the same. Here’s what to look for, including short term to long term price projections.
The market has now been rangebound for 5 weeks, leaving the cycle picture muddled. Wave amplitude remains relatively high, while frequency has increased. If the recent pattern holds, the market would top out on Thursday. But what if it doesn’t cooperate. Here’s what to look for to signal what comes next.
Treasury issuance has caught up with QE. There are no more excess funds lying around for dealers to use to mark up stock and bond prices. The balance has shifted. It’s not as bullish as it was, that’s for sure. And it could get much, much worse in the weeks ahead before the Fed reacts.
In normal times, the Federal Government has a revenue windfall in April, and runs a large surplus for the month. Revenues are typically at least 140% of outlays. Even more in good years.
Revenues covered just 24% of outlays in April. We borrowed 76 cents of every dollar the Federal Government spent last month.
We knew this was coming. The questions now are how long it can last, when it will start to recover, and whether it might get worse.
Gold is consolidating. Here’s what to look for to signal that it’s something worse.