Liquidity Trader – US Treasury Market Trend Supply and Demand

Analysis of new Treasury supply and major demand market segments to estimate market liquidity impacts for bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy recommendations. Click here to subscribe. Now published at Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader.

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Here’s Why Bonds Rallying Despite Burgeoning Supply is Bad News

The BLS reported a very weak jobs number this morning. Treasuries are rallying again. How the BLS got that number in the face of surge in withholding tax collections in February is a mystery, but the likely outcome isn’t. Here’s why it’s bad news for both bonds and stocks, along with  a recommendation what to…

This Chart Shows Why Dealer Positions Are a Catastrophe in the Making

The Primary Dealers are in trouble, demonstrably worse trouble than they were in just before the September 2008 stock market crash. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of…

Fed Chairman Chamberlain Appeases Wall Street To Gain Peace in Our Time

You’re probably dying to know what I think about the FOMC statement and Chairman Pow’s press conference today. OK, maybe not, but this report will tell you why you should not be misled by what went down today. Just as with Neville Chamberlain, this apparent abject surrender to Trump and Wall Street’s threats does not mean…

Party Over – To Print Or Not To Print, That Is the Question Now

Thanks to the government shutdown (GSD) the Treasury had a few extra shekels lying around this month, and it used those to pay down T-bills. That cash flowed back into the accounts of dealers and investors who held the bills. Enough of them used that cash to buy stocks to foment a meltup. Now that the…

Here’s Why Overloaded Dealers Will Weigh On The Bond and Stock Markets

Treasury demand trends have looked bullish in the short run, but they’re just laying the seeds of that, “Bullish? Not so much!” hangover. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the…

Here’s Why You Shouldn’t Buy Bonds Despite Bullish Signs on Their Charts

Longer term Treasuries began to rally in early November and that rally has continued, fueled largely by the big liquidation of stocks over the past couple of months. There’s no sign yet of any real easing of tightening conditions in the money market. The uptrend in short term rates is intact. But there are bullish…

Treasury Supply And A Pound of Flesh

The Treasury supply catastrophe has taken its pound of flesh from the stock market since our last report in November. The liquidation of stocks has sent some cash cascading into the long term Treasury market, pushing yields down. But is that bullish for bonds? Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where…

Why We Need To Keep An Eye on Those Paragons of Market Timing

Those paragons of market timing (not), the US commercial banks, have massively increased their buying of Treasuries. This report tells you what this means for the market, and gives you a strategy to take advantage of it and let you sleep like a baby. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where…

Wall Street’s Misinterpretation of Powell’s Remarks Didn’t Fool The Money Market

On Wednesday, November 28, stock traders interpreted remarks by Fed Chairman Powell to mean that there would be fewer rate increases than originally expected. Stocks exploded higher. But the money market wasn’t fooled. Here’s what it means for your money, and what you should do about it. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money.…

Here’s Why The Treasury Deluge Should Keep You Up At Night, But Profit You If You Play It Right

The supply catastrophe in the Treasury market caused by the Trump Regime’s disastrous fiscal policy goes on, with no end in sight. If you’re long stocks, you should be afraid, very afraid. Or you could take advantage instead. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates,…