Liquidity Trader – US Treasury Market Trend Supply and Demand

Analysis of new Treasury supply and major demand market segments to estimate market liquidity impacts for bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy recommendations. Click here to subscribe. Now published at Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader.

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Primary Dealer Positions Are Off The Charts DANGEROUS

Primary Dealers continue to hold historically massive net long fixed income positions. They have purchased those positions using debt, resulting in huge increases in leverage. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to…

We Knew the Treasury Paydowns Would Be Bullish, But What Now?

Last month in the Treasury Supply update (May 16) I wrote that the debt ceiling would continue to force the Treasury to pay down debt, short term T-bills in particular. I said that the paydowns “will continue until the end of Q2. That’s bullish for bonds, and possibly for stocks.” Follow the money. Find the…

Primary Dealer Positions Bulging, Bloated, and Overstuffed, Could Explode

Primary Dealer positions are record long, record leveraged, and record dangerous. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of the next big moves in stocks and bonds, just follow…

Ticking Time Bomb In The Treasury Market Could Blow Up The World

The Treasury market will look very bullish for a little while. But the aftermath of the forces that look bullish now, will be terrible. Here’s why. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want…

Primary Dealer Positions Are a Black Cloud Over the Market

Dealer positions look scary. Here’s why, and what to do about it to protect yourself, AND take advantage! Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of the next big…

Here’s How Light Treasury Supply In April and May Create Selling Opportunities in Bonds and Stocks

Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of the next big moves in stocks and bonds, just follow the money. Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader tracks and shows you the…

These Charts Show How Primary Dealers Create Huge Risk as They Get Longer and Longer the Bond Market

The Primary Dealers continue to carry historically massive net long fixed income positions, purchased with debt, resulting in huge increases in leverage. They are hedging in the futures markets, and have reduced their Treasury longs a bit over the past month. But their overall net long exposure continues to grow. Here’s what history tells us…

Charts Show Increased Speculative Leverage Driving Rallies in Stocks and Bonds

Meanwhile, instead of liquidating other assets to raise the cash to buy new Treasury supply, dealers and other buyers have used up cash and added to their leverage. The rally has been pushed by a massive increase in leveraged speculation. This leaves the markets increasingly vulnerable. Here’s what to look for and how to trade…