The trend is your friend, and the Fed has gone soft. And traders know it. But there may be trouble in Primary Dealer Bond Land.
The Treasury has been pounding the market with supply since the debt ceiling was lifted in early August. Yet stock and bond markets have both…
The Treasury and the Fed are colluding to boil the bond investor frogs on a sunny sidewalk.
One thing I learned years ago as a Florida resident running an online business is that I don’t want to stick around to see if…
The game is over. The massive liquidity inflows from the US Treasury into dealer accounts that has fueled the stock and bond rallies since March…
The Treasury paydown game has ended. A deluge of supply isAnd buyers are panicking into bonds, a move that will live in infamy.
The debt ceiling deal is done. It only remains for the House and Senate to pass the deals and send it to the White House…
Primary Dealers continue to hold historically massive net long fixed income positions. They have purchased those positions using debt, resulting in huge increases in leverage.…
The US Treasury continues to pay down T-Bills. That puts cash back into the accounts of the dealers and investors that had held the securities…
Last month in the Treasury Supply update (May 16) I wrote that the debt ceiling would continue to force the Treasury to pay down debt,…