Game over. The grand central bank experiment of the last 10 years has ended in utter and complete failure. The games of cheap money and constant intervention that have brought you record […]
Early last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the unemployment rate in the United States had fallen to just 3.6%. It was the lowest in half a century, seemingly an amazing feat for the most puzzling boom ever conceived. Everyone says it is going gangbusters, but is everyone saying so simply because […]
In case you missed it, the rate cuts have already started. They actually began last year among the major economies in India. If we are counting only DM countries, then Australia and New Zealand are first out of the gate; the latter smaller country beating the larger former by around a month. In a way, […]
Where have you gone, green shoots? The Fed turned dovish, a bunch of transitory factors, and, above all, so much Chinese stimulus. That’s what got everyone through the winter. Markets were truly harsh to end 2018, a sharp slap in the face after all year the unemployment rate. One of the big ones that seemed […]
There are two other trends that don’t attract quite the media attention that soaring profits do.Is the decade-long tech bubble finally popping? Tech bulls are overlooking the fundamental reality that the drivers of Big tech’s phenomenal growth–fi…
New York | Last week in The Institutional Risk Analyst, we gave you a taste of today’s interview with author and consultant Jim Rickards to talk about his latest book, “Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos.” As usual, Jim has a commanding view of the ebb and flow of the global political economy. His first chapter in which he describes the fateful role of former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in choosing the current monetary policy mix sets the stage for an important
Again, who’s following who? As US Treasury yields drop and eurodollar futures prices rise, signaling expectations for lower money rates in the near future, Federal Reserve officials are catching up to them. It was these markets which first took further rate hikes off the table before there ever was a Fed “pause.” Now that the […]
Please don’t anybody act surprised by today’s rally. We were oversold, we hit key technical pivots and a bounce was due, but the trigger was well advertised in advance. 13 Fed speakers […]
The fact that the mainstream isn’t taking this all very seriously isn’t anything new. But how serious are things really? That’s pretty much the only question anyone should be asking. What are the curves telling us about what’s now just over the horizon? I hesitate to use 2008 comparisons too often because many people immediately […]
When the eurodollar futures curve first inverted a year ago in the wake of May 29, 2018, it was the market beginning to hedge against serious and rising risks of something that would force the Federal Reserve to turn around. When that might happen, or how many cuts would eventually follow, those were questions the […]
