Will we wonder, what were we thinking? and marvel anew at the madness of crowds?When we look back on this moment from the vantage of history, what will we think? Will we think how obvious it was that the coronavirus deaths in China were …
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When China’s Supply Chains Break, so Will the Delusion the U.S. Economy Is Invulnerable
by Charles Hugh Smith • • 0 Comments
Was it ever plausible that China’s economy could grind to a halt and there wouldn’t be any consequences for the U.S. economy? No.Many commentators talk about supply chains in China, but how many have actually visited factories in China, other than care…
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Brace for Impact: Global Pandemic Already Baked In
by Charles Hugh Smith • • 0 Comments
If we accept what is known about the virus, then logic, science and probabilities all suggest we brace for impact.Here’s a summary of what is known or credibly estimated about the 2019-nCoV virus as of January 31, 2019:1. A statistical study from highl…
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Second-Order Effects: The Unexpectedly Slippery Path to Dow 10,000
by Charles Hugh Smith • • 0 Comments
Dow 30,000 is “unsinkable,” just like the Titanic.A recent Barrons cover celebrating the euphoric inevitability of Dow 30,000 captured the mainstream zeitgeist perfectly: Corporate America is firing on all cylinders, the Federal Reserve’…
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Has the Global Economy Finally Exhausted its Good Luck?
by Charles Hugh Smith • • 0 Comments
All of these guarantees and redundancies are as illusory as the “unsinkable” technologies of the Titanic.
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Could the Coronavirus Epidemic Be the Tipping Point in the Supply Chain Leaving China?
by Charles Hugh Smith • • 0 Comments
Everyone expecting a quick resolution to the epidemic and a rapid return to pre-epidemic conditions would be well-served by looking beyond first-order effects.While the media naturally focuses on the immediate effects of the coronavirus epidemic, …
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Is the Market Grossly Underestimating the Potential Impact of the Coronavirus Epidemic?
by Charles Hugh Smith • • 0 Comments
The potential for a consequential disruption in China’s supply chains appears to be vastly under-appreciated.Despite the current drop in stocks (less than 1.5% as this is written), there’s a tremendous reservoir of complacency about the econo…
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Some Practical Questions about the Coronavirus Epidemic
by Charles Hugh Smith • • 0 Comments
Restrictions that allow a significant number of people to move about, either with official approval or unsanctioned “black market” activity, cannot stop the spread of contagious diseases.Like everyone else, I’ve been reading the mainstream media report…
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If the Martians Teleported the Davos Crowd to a Distant Moon, Who Would Mourn and Who Would Cheer?
by Charles Hugh Smith • • 0 Comments
The system that has so enriched the self-serving Davos Crowd is unraveling, and technocratic tweaks, carbon trading and philanthro-capitalism can’t fix what’s broken.Thought experiment: If the Martians teleported the entire Davos Crowd to a d…
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No Matter How Much Money the Fed Prints, We Still Can’t Afford Nice Things
by Charles Hugh Smith • • 0 Comments
When will the American wage-earner finally tire of the skims, scams, fraud and lies that are now the foundations of everyday life?You’d think that with the Federal Reserve printing trillions of dollars since 2008, we’d all be able to afford nice things…
